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The S&P 500 is likely to decline early in the week but rally into Friday. The index is usually strong in April but has fallen in the first half of the month. When price has fallen in the first half of April, the index rose in 15 of 18 years in the following week.

A scan has been run of the S&P 500. This table combines seasonal strength in column 2 and relative strength in column 3.

Combined Seasonal and RSV Rank

Fidelity National Information Services is number one. Over the last 21 years, this sector has risen 62% of the time in April and 80% of the time in May. The monthly histogram shows the seasonal strength. From March 19th through June 6th, price has risen 85% of the time. The dynamic monthly cycle has bottomed as can be seen below in chart 2. The stock is likely to challenge the $110-$115 level in May.

Chart 1-Fidelity National Monthly Histogram


Blue: Average Percentage Change

Red: Probability of a rise on that day

Green: Expected Return (Product of the first 2)

Chart 2-Fidelity National Monthly Cycle

Chart 3-Fidelity National Weekly Price Graph

Source: Forbes

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