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Here are the cycles-based trade recommendations for the DJIA stocks in this month. In March, the long trades returned an average of +2.88% versus a change of +2.32% in the DJIA in comparison to a return of -0.17% for the short sales. Over the last 20 months, the long stocks have risen by an amount about 20% greater than that of the DJIA and 69% greater than the short sales.

For the month of April, the cycle/relative strength concept is applied. First, the Dow Jones 30 stocks are ranked from the best performer to the worst by calculating the expected return in that month. The top stocks were screened as follows. The top best traditional performers in the month were then screened for relative strength by a unique measure that sorts by several relevant time periods. Those that pass both screens are buys for the month. The stocks that are both weak monthly performers and weak relative performers are short sales for the month.

The seasonal screen for the month is presented below. The number of years of data is in the last column. The Times Return column shows the percent of months in which the stock rose. The Return column shows the average percentage gain in the month. The Expected Return column is the product of columns two and three. We can see that VISA has been trading for 14 years and has risen in almost 79% in all the months of April. The average return has been 5.38% and the expected return is 4.23%.

Average Performance of the DJIA Stocks in the Month of April

Of the strongest, these stocks show strong relative strength and are considered buys for the month:

Chevron

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VISA

American Express

Microsoft

Coca Cola

Apple

Regarding the weakest, these stocks show declining relative strength and are suitable short sales:

Walgreen-Boots

Disney

JP Morgan

Goldman Sachs

Verizon

Boeing

Source: Forbes

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