With the election just weeks away, the latest polls present a striking picture. Despite a series of unmet goals and controversies, the Scottish National Party (SNP) maintains a strong lead. A recent survey indicated the party might secure 63 seats in the Scottish Parliament, holding a 24-point advantage over rivals.

Remarkably, the Scottish Greens are projected to take the second spot, an outcome that could unsettle many. This unexpected scenario adds a layer of tension to the political landscape.

If John Swinney secures 65 seats, granting the SNP a majority, the next parliament could face significant constitutional challenges. Economists have been urgently calling on politicians to focus on the pressing issue awaiting Holyrood post-election—a staggering £5 billion budget shortfall.

However, should the SNP gain an outright win or partner once more with the Greens, this financial crisis might be overshadowed by a push for nationalist agendas.

John Swinney, hesitant to reflect on his past performance or adjust spending habits to stabilize public finances, may instead resort to demanding another referendum.

While many voters remain loyal to their preferred parties, some may find the idea of casting a tactical vote against the SNP distasteful, despite the high stakes involved.

But supporters of the Union have a higher cause to consider. That is why the Mail is publishing a comprehensive guide to how pro-UK voters can stop another SNP victory next month.

It sets out the best-placed pro-Union candidate in each of Scotland’s 73 constituencies.

Produced in conjunction with the Scotland in Union campaign group,it is based on past election history, demographic data, opinion poll research and specific local knowledge.

Scotland in Union did not make a recommendation for the regional list and is instead backing voters to simply opt for their preferred pro-Union party on the peach-coloured ballot paper.

An estimated two in five voters are open to tactical voting – and thanks to our invaluable interactive guide, they will know exactly how to make that vote count.

 

HIGHLANDS AND ISLANDS

Argyll and Bute  

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 8,963

Second-placed 2021: Conservative

In the last election, the SNP easily retained this constituency with 49.5 per cent of all votes, with the Tories and Lib Dems almost neck-and-neck in second place. 

Against the backdrop of huge unrest about the ferries fiasco, incumbent SNP candidate Jenni Minto could face a genuine threat. 

This seat has only ever been held by the SNP or the Lib Dems and there is evidence of a resurgence by the Lib Dems in this area, which gives former MP Alan Reid the chance of a scalp.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Caithness, Sutherland and Ross

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 2,591

Second-placed 2021: Lib Dems

First elected in 2016 as a list MSP and then to this constituency in 2021, Maree Todd is regarded as one of the SNP’s least impressive ministerial performers. 

Earlier this month, the Minister for Drugs & Alcohol Policy demonstrated to constituents how tone deaf she is with an ill-advised April Fool’s ‘joke’ about ferry services at a time of huge disruption for families because of cancellations. 

The Lib Dems are the main rival to the SNP here, and their highly regarded candidate David Green, a close aide of the late Charles Kennedy, will believe he can achieve the modest swing required to snatch the seat back.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Inverness and Nairn

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 9,114

Second-placed 2021: Conservative

This seat has been an SNP stronghold with Fergus Ewing representing it and its predecessor constituency since Holyrood was created. 

But he threw a grenade into this campaign by opting to stand as an independent after becoming an arch critic of the SNP’s coalition agreement with the Greens, lack of progress on A9 and A96 dualling and the approach to single-sex spaces for women. 

Tory Edward Mountain was second in 2021 but he is standing down, and the Lib Dems established themselves as the SNP’s closest rival when Angus MacDonald won the corresponding Westminster seat in 2024, meaning Lib Dem Neil Alexander looks best placed to defeat the SNP’s Emma Roddick.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Moray

Incumbent party: SNP

Majority: 3,164

Second-placed 2021: Conservative

Long-serving Nationalist MSP Richard Lochhead narrowly held this seat in 2021 against a strong showing by Tory Tim Eagle but he is standing down at this election and that means the Tories have a strong chance of snatching the seat back. 

Firmly established as the SNP’s main rival since Douglas Ross defeated then SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson in the corresponding Westminster seat at the 2017 general election, Mr Eagle will seek to unite pro-Union voters to beat the SNP’s Laura Mitchell.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Western Isles (Na h-Eileanan an Iar)

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 3,441

Second-placed 2021: Labour

This has previously been a Nationalist stronghold but recent elections indicate a resurgent Labour threatens that dominance.

In 2021, Labour secured second place and then snatched the Westminster Western Isles constituency in 2024 with a mammoth swing which saw Torcuil Crichton secure 49.5 per cent of the vote, a result that Lewis activist Donald MacKinnon will look to replicate in order to defeat Alasdair Allan.

Tactical vote: Labour

Orkney Islands

Incumbent: Lib Dem

Majority: 3,869

Second-placed 2021: SNP

He has served the Orkney Islands for nearly two decades and likeable Lib Dem Liam McArthur will look to see off any prospects of the SNP pulling off a shock. In 2021, he secured an astonishing 62 per cent of the vote, which was more than double the SNP vote.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Shetland Islands

Incumbent: Lib Dem

Majority: 806

Second-placed 2021: SNP

Scotland’s northernmost constituency has been a Lib Dem seat since the establishment of the Scottish parliament in 1999 but Tavish Scott’s decision to stand down in 2021 led to an extremely closely fought battle with the SNP last time round, with Beatrice Wishart narrowly holding on despite her vote declining by 19 per cent while the SNP’s soared by the same amount.

Since then, Alistair Carmichael comfortably held the Westminster seat of Orkney and Shetland in 2024, which will give Lib Dem candidate Emma Macdonald, currently leader of Shetland Islands Council, confidence she can hold off Nationalist Hannah Goodlad.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 15,861

Second-placed 2021: Conservative

Kate Forbes seemed more popular with voters in this constituency than she was with a large section of her own party, and managed to increase her vote share in 2021 to 56 per cent for a massive 15,861 majority over Tory Jamie Halcro Johnston. 

But the Deputy First Minister is standing down with Eilidh Munro taking her place.

The Lib Dems won the Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire seat, which overlaps part of this constituency, in 2024 and also comfortably won a recent local council by-election in Fort William and Ardnamurchan, making Lib Dem Andrew Baxter the best-placed pro-Union rival to the SNP.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

WEST SCOTLAND

Clydebank and Milngavie

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,274

Second-placed 2021: Labour

Five years ago, the SNP’s Marie McNair was elected with a sizeable majority of 5,274 after securing 47 per cent of the vote. 

However, there were signs to concern the SNP, with its vote share declining by two percentage points while Labour’s soared by 10 percentage points, putting it firmly in second place. 

Labour’s Callum McNally, has a good chance of challenging the SNP – as long as pro-Union voters unite and are not tempted to back Reform UK’s candidate, which would boost the SNP’s prospects of holding onto the seat.

Tactical vote: Labour

Cunninghame North

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,776

Second-placed 2021: Conservative

This was a comfortable hold for the SNP’s Kenneth Gibson in 2021, with Tory Jamie Greene in second place. 

The latter has deserted both the Conservatives and this constituency following his defection to the Liberal Democrats. 

Labour were third in 2021 but their candidate, Labour staffer Matthew McGowan looks best placed to challenge the SNP, particularly following the success of his boss, Irene Campbell, in the nearby Westminster constituency of North Ayrshire and Arran at the 2024 general election.

Tactical vote: Labour

Cunninghame South

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,952

Second-placed 2021: Labour

Ruth Maguire won this seat in 2021 with more than double the number of votes than her Labour rival in second place. 

Boundary changes, together with a strong performance in overlapping Westminster seats in 2024, will boost the prospects of Labour, which is represented by former MP and current MSP Katy Clark. 

With Ms Maguire standing down, the SNP will be represented by the controversial former MP Patricia Gibson. If successful, it would mean both Cunninghame seats could be represented by a husband and wife.

Tactical vote: Labour

Dumbarton

Incumbent: Labour

Majority: 1,483

Second-placed 2021: SNP

When it comes to pro-Union tactical voting, few do it better than the constituents of Dumbarton.

Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie has been representing this constituency, which includes the Faslane naval base, since the formation of the Scottish parliament and always appeals strongly to supporters of other pro-Union parties to lend her their votes.

The SNP threw everything at the seat in 2021 and came up narrowly short by just 1,483 votes and the Nationalists will push hard again with local councillor Sophie Traynor.

Any significant support for Reform UK in this seat could be enough to make it swing to the SNP.

Tactical vote: Labour

Eastwood

Incumbent: Conservative

Majority: 2,216

Second-placed: SNP

The seat with Scotland’s largest Jewish population has been by represented by Jackson Carlaw since 2016, having been a regional MSP prior to that.

While Labour might put up an argument for standing a chance in the seat, especially since it won the neighbouring Westminster seat of East Renfrewshire in 2024, Mr Carlaw’s strong local reputation marks him out as the clear candidate for pro-Union voters to rally around to defeat the SNP, which is heavily targeting the seat through its candidate, the former MP Kirsten Oswald.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Inverclyde

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 8,174

Second-placed: Labour

Another seat that has been heavily impacted by boundary changes, the SNP’s Stuart McMillan comfortably won the predecessor seat of Greenock and Inverclyde in 2021.

Labour’s Francesca Brennan is again Mr McMillan’s clear closest rival – and pro-Union voters are strongly advised to resist backing other high-profile candidates in the seat, Reform UK’s Scottish leader Lord Malcolm Offord and the Liberal Democrats’ Jamie Greene, as they could make it easier for the SNP to hold it.

Tactical vote: Labour

Paisley

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 6,075

Second-placed 2021: Labour

Labour’s Neil Bibby is seeking to oust long-serving Paisley MSP George Adam, a former SNP minister. 

He failed to eat into Mr Adam’s majority in the constituency in 2021 but established himself as the clear rival to the SNP and Labour will be heavily targeting the seat after securing successes in the two overlapping Westminster constituencies in the 2024 general election.

Tactical vote: Labour

Renfrewshire North and Cardonald

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,307

Second-placed: Labour

A SPLIT pro-Union vote in 2021 helped the SNP win the old seat of Renfrewshire North and West with a majority of more than 7,000 last time round with Natalie Don-Innes securing 46 per cent of the vote, ahead of Labour on 27 per cent and the Tories on 23 per cent. 

Now a new seat due to boundary changes, Labour’s Mike McKirdy looks best placed to take on the SNP’s Michelle Campbell after his party’s successes in neighbouring Westminster constituencies two years ago at the General Election.

Tactical vote: Labour

Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,106

Second-placed: Labour

A constituency which has undergone significant boundary changes since 2021, when the SNP’s Tom Arthur held Renfrewshire South with a 20-point lead over Labour. 

The Tories were a distant third with half of Labour’s votes, and their voters could help defeat the SNP by backing Labour’s Paul O’Kane on the constituency vote, while supporting the Tories on the regional list.

Tactical vote: Labour

Strathkelvin and Bearsden

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 11,484

Second-placed: Conservative

Another constituency where more voters supported pro-Union candidates than Nationalists in 2021, yet the SNP’s Rona Mackay secured the seat with an 11,000-plus majority. 

In 2021, the SNP were on 45 per cent, followed by the Tories on 21 per cent, Labour 18 per cent and Lib Dems 14 per cent. Scotland in Union is recommending pro-Union voters back Lib Dem candidate Adam Harley this time, particularly since Lib Dem Susan Murray gained the Westminster seat of Mid Dunbartonshire from the SNP with a majority of more than 10,000 in 2024 following a huge swing.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem