Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in a tense waiting period as the polls have officially closed in the Gorton and Denton by-election. The outcome of this election could have significant implications for the political landscape in Greater Manchester.

The Prime Minister is bracing for the possibility of another substantial setback for Labour, as both Reform UK and the Green Party are optimistic about their chances of seizing the seat. This election comes at a critical time, with both parties eager to make their mark in this historically Labour-leaning region.

At the 2024 general election, Labour secured a commanding victory in Gorton and Denton, capturing more than half of the vote. However, recent polling suggests that today’s by-election has evolved into a competitive three-way race, reflecting shifting political dynamics.

A loss in this by-election could ignite further discussions about Sir Keir’s tenure as Prime Minister, especially in the wake of the Peter Mandelson scandal that has already shaken his leadership. Conversely, a victory would offer him a much-needed opportunity to regroup and strengthen his administration before the upcoming local elections in May.

For Reform UK, a win would signify a significant stride forward, marking yet another milestone for Nigel Farage’s party. It would also amplify their parliamentary presence, especially after gaining attention through recent high-profile defections from the Conservative Party.

A win for Reform would be another major breakthrough for Nigel Farage’s party and boost their tally of MPs even higher after recent high-profile Tory defections.

It would also build on Reform’s victory at the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in May last year, where the party overturned a sizeable Labour majority.

Meanwhile, the Greens are hoping to show they can mount a serious Left-wing challenge to Labour under new ‘eco-populist’ leader Zack Polanski.

As polls closed on Thursday night, Labour MP Andrew Western – the party’s political lead for the by-election – appeared to try dampen expectations of success.

‘By-elections are always difficult for incumbent governments and this one has been no different,’ he said.

Mr Polanski was more upbeat about his own party’s chances, telling Sky News: ‘I’m pretty sure we’re in first or second place and I think that is pretty incredible.

‘If the weather has been right then I think we could take this, I’m feeling confident but not complacent.’

A Green Party source added: ‘We feel like we’ve thrown everything at this election. We’ve given it our all.

‘I think at the very least we can say we’ve given Labour the scare of their lives in what not so long ago was considered one of their safest seats in the country.’

Meanwhile, a furious row broke out over claims of high levels of illegal ‘family voting’ in the by-election.

Democracy Volunteers, who sent accredited observers across Gorton and Denton on Thursday, expressed fears about major breaches of electoral law.

Family voting is where a voter is accompanied by another person into or near polling booths with the intention of influencing their vote.

Tougher legislation, known as the Ballot Secrecy Act, was introduced in 2023 in a bid to clamp down on the practice.

It made it more clearly an offence for someone to accompany a voter to a polling booth or position themselves nearby with the intention of influencing a voter.

In a statement issued as polls closed on Thursday night, Democracy Volunteers said they had seen ‘the highest levels of family voting at any election in our 10-year history of observing elections in the UK’.

But Manchester City Council insisted ‘no such issues have been reported’.

Mr Farage said the report of high levels of family voting ‘raises serious questions about the integrity of the democratic process in predominantly Muslim areas’. 

Polling stations closed in Gorton and Denton at 10pm on Thursday with a result expected in the early hours of Friday morning. 

Labour mounted a fierce campaign to maintain its grip on the constituency, a traditional stronghold, with more than 1,000 activists said to have visited.

Party sources said Labour had ‘a very impressive polling day today’, adding: ‘We’ve spoken to more voters today than we have done any previous by-election polling day.

‘But it’s fair to say that we do think it’s going to be very close.’

A series of senior Labour figures – including Sir Keir himself, top Cabinet ministers, and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham – flooded the seat in recent days.

A final photocall for Labour’s candidate Angeliki Stogia, a local councillor, on Thursday saw her join Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell and Mr Burnham.

In pouring rain in Gorton as the campaign counted down to its final hours, the three stepped onto a campaign bus along with activists for a final round of door-knocking.

Mr Burnham said he was not ‘sorry’ he was not the by-election candidate himself, with his bid to contest the seat for Labour dramatically blocked by Sir Keir last month.

‘No, we’ve got a brilliant candidate, and she hasn’t put a foot wrong,’ he said. ‘She’s been out every day. She’s done us proud.’

The Greater Manchester mayor is widely seen as a potential leadership challenger to Sir Keir should he return to Westminster as an MP.

Mr Farage visited Gorton and Denton on Wednesday night, speaking to voters alongside Reform’s candidate Matthew Goodwin.

Ahead of polls opening at 7am on Thursday, Mr Farage said: ‘Our message on election day is clear.

‘The Prime Minister is panicking and knows he has broken his promises to the British people. Vote Reform to ditch Starmer.’

The Greens have sought to pitch themselves as the only option for anti-Reform voters.

Their candidate Hannah Spencer pledged to ‘run the far-Right out of Manchester, not to come back’.

She said: ‘The polls and independent tactical voting organisation are clear that voting Green is the only way to ensure Reform don’t win.’

The Greens have also attempted to appeal to the significant Muslim vote in Gorton and Denton by hammering Sir Keir and Labour over Gaza.

The seat is sharply divided in ethnicity, religion and deprivation – making the outcome incredibly difficult to predict. 

How Labour performs could be make-or-break for Sir Keir, as he struggles to contain the Mandelson scandal and dire national polls.

The PM made a token visit to the constituency on Monday but was humiliatingly kept away from ordinary voters amid dire poll ratings. 

The premier barely survived a leadership coup a fortnight ago, with the Cabinet only rallying round at the last moment. 

Even supporters of Sir Keir believe a third-placed finish in Gorton and Denton could be terminal.

In his final message to voters, Sir Keir sought to woo wavering Labour voters by painting the contest as a straight fight between his party and Reform.

He said: ‘The choice at today’s by-election could not be more stark. Unity or division.

‘Driving down the cost of living with Labour or driving a wedge between communities under Reform.

‘Moving forwards together, or opening up anger and division that holds our country back.

‘Reform’s Matthew Goodwin thinks people who aren’t white can’t be English and wants women who choose not to have children to pay more tax.

‘Vote Labour in Gorton and Denton today to send him and his toxic politics packing.’

The contest in Manchester has been beset by allegations of dirty tricks, with parties repeatedly referring each other’s candidates to the police.

In the latest twist, the Greens accused Labour of handing out leaflets from an ‘entirely fictitious’ tactical voting organisation urging voters to back Sir Keir’s party.

The leaflets from ‘Tactical Choice’ carried a supposed poll that put Labour and Reform neck-and-neck when ‘not including polling funded by Green Party donors’.

They added: ‘Based on a new prediction published in the last 24 hours we are recommending voting Labour.’

A Green Party spokesman said: ‘In a final throw of desperation, Labour have made up an entirely fictitious organisation called ‘Tactical Choice’ referencing them on their final leaflet.

‘They’ve had to make this up because every actual tactical voting organisation has endorsed the Green Party as the best hope to keep Reform out in this election.’

For its part, Labour has accused the Greens of ‘whipping up hatred’ over Gaza in parts of the constituency with a large Muslim population.

The party even put out a campaign video in Urdu which featured images of David Lammy shaking hands with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.

Ms Powell said the Green campaign had been ‘characterised by misinformation, with dodgy bar charts’.

However, Labour put out a leaflet of its own with a bar chart showing it neck-and-neck with Reform – but omitting the Greens in the lead.