In a significant escalation of rhetoric, former President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Iran, threatening severe repercussions if the government continues its brutal suppression of protests sweeping the nation. The demonstrations, now in their second week, have claimed the lives of at least 20 individuals, including a member of Iran’s security forces. Originating in the capital, Tehran, the protests have rapidly spread to over 220 towns and cities across 26 of Iran’s 31 provinces, leading to nearly 1,000 arrests.

During a conversation aboard Air Force One, Trump declared his intention to respond forcefully should the Iranian regime continue its violent crackdown. “We’re watching it very closely,” he stated, hinting at potential U.S. action, “If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States.” This pronouncement seems to have unsettled Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Reports suggest he may have a contingency plan to escape to Moscow if his security apparatus fails to contain the burgeoning unrest.

According to The Times, the 86-year-old leader has prepared for a possible exit with up to 20 aides and family members, including his son and likely successor, Mojtaba. An intelligence source revealed that Khamenei has been setting the stage for such a move by accumulating assets and resources abroad, ensuring a potential safe passage. This comes as Khamenei grapples with the aftermath of a 12-day conflict initiated by Israel in June, which included U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Meanwhile, Iran’s self-described ‘Axis of Resistance’ – a coalition of countries and militant groups backed by Tehran – has been decimated in the years since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in 2023. The collapse of the rial has led to a widening economic crisis in Iran. Prices are up on meat, rice and other staples of the Iranian dinner table. The nation has been struggling with an annual inflation rate of some 40%. In December, Iran introduced a new pricing tier for its nationally subsidised gasoline, raising the price of some of the world’s cheapest gas and further pressuring the population. Tehran may seek steeper price increases in the future, as the government now will review prices every three months.

The protests began first with merchants in Tehran before spreading. While initially focused on economic issues, the demonstrations soon saw protesters chanting anti-government statements as well. Anger has been simmering over the years, particularly after the 2022 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody that triggered nationwide demonstrations. Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance,’ which grew in prominence in the years after the 2003 US-led invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq, is reeling. Israel has crushed Hamas in the devastating war in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group in Lebanon, has seen its top leadership killed by Israel and has been struggling since.

A lightning offensive in December 2024 overthrew Iran’s longtime stalwart ally and client in Syria, President Bashar Assad, after years of war there. Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels also have been pounded by Israeli and American airstrikes. China meanwhile has remained a major buyer of Iranian crude oil, but hasn’t provided overt military support. Neither has Russia, which has relied on Iranian drones in its war on Ukraine. Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, its officials have increasingly threatened to pursue a nuclear weapon.

Iran had been enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels prior to the US attack in June, making it the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so. Tehran also increasingly cut back its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, as tensions increased over its nuclear program in recent years. The IAEA’s director-general has warned Iran could build as many as 10 nuclear bombs, should it decide to weaponize its program. US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has ‘undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.’ Pictured: : An Iranian nuclear power plant stands in 2005.