Marco Rubio is swiftly closing in on JD Vance’s previously commanding lead among conservative activists. The latest CPAC straw poll reveals Rubio’s impressive surge into a solid second place, as Vance’s support dwindles compared to last year. This development is transforming what had been an uneven race to succeed President Donald Trump into a much tighter contest.

Although Vance still led the 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll on Saturday, securing 53% support, Rubio’s rise to 35% marks a notable increase, considerably narrowing the gap between the two contenders. This is a significant shift from the previous year when Vance boasted a stronger 61%, and Rubio was trailing with just 3%.

Rubio’s ascent in the CPAC poll is attributed to his increasing prominence on issues of foreign policy and national security, such as the Iran War. This focus has helped bolster his appeal among conservative voters.

The growing spotlight on both Rubio and Vance highlights a developing two-fold contest over the future direction of the party. Vance remains anchored in a populist alignment with Trump, while Rubio’s expanding policy focus offers a different path forward.

Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, once viewed as a leading contender to inherit Trump’s mantle, received a mere 2% support in the same straw poll. This underscores his reduced standing among activists, even as he continues to hint at potential aspirations for a future presidential run.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, once seen as a top heir apparent, drew just 2% support in the same straw poll, underscoring his diminished standing among activists despite him continuing to signal openness to a future White House bid.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard were all tied at 1%.

The CPAC result is not an isolated data point but part of a broader pattern of early positioning ahead of the 2028 race, where Vance has consistently appeared near the top of initial polling and candidate watchlists.

Still, Rubio’s upward trajectory suggests the race is far from settled.

In November, Vance acknowledged he’s weighing a potential 2028 presidential run but says his immediate focus remains on governing and helping Republicans win the midterms before making any decision — while downplaying rivalry with Rubio, whom he described as a close ally despite both being viewed as leading contenders to succeed Trump.

“I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections, sure,” Vance, 41, told Fox News last fall.

“But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now and my job is to do it.”

Trump ruled out running as Vance’s vice president to gain a third term in office, though he has mused about a potential 2028 face-off against New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.