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The UK’s public health body has been censured by the statistics watchdog over claims that 200,000 people were catching Omicron per day which were not supported by evidence.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), which is led by Dame Jenny Harries, was rebuked by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) over the figures publicised by Sajid Javid late last year.
Its leader Ed Humpherson said that the claim ’caused confusion and some speculation in the media, which distracts from the message the statistics are conveying’.
The background figures used to make the estimate were published two days later.
The HSA and Health Secretary Sajid Javid were accused of scare-mongering after the gloomy models were shared with MPs on December 14.
His comments, made in a statement discussing the threat of Omicron, sparked immediate confusion over whether the figure was relating to the virus as a whole, or specifically just the super-mutant variant.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), which is led by Dame Jenny Harries, was rebuked by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) over the figures publicised by Sajid Javid late last year.
The HSA and Health Secretary Sajid Javid were accused of scare-mongering after the gloomy models were shared with MPs on December 14 (pictured)
Department of Health insiders later confirmed he was correct to imply Omicron cases had hit 200,000 a day.
But in the letter, sent in December but revealed today by the Sunday Telegraph, Mr Humpherson said the statement was ‘initially also unsupported by data’.
‘This caused confusion and some speculation in the media, which distracts from the message the statistics are conveying,’ he added.
‘An explanation of the methodology used to arrive at the daily number of infections was published on 16 December. OSR has previously made clear its expectation that data and methods should be made equally available to all before any planned statement is made.
‘Transparency of data used to inform decisions is vital to public understanding and public confidence. In this case, the delay between the use of the figure and the publication of the data was unsatisfactory.
In the letter to UKHSA, Ed Humpherson, head of the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), wrote: “The Secretary of State mentioned an estimate of the daily number of infections of Covid, which was initially also unsupported by data.
This caused confusion and some speculation in the media, which dis tracts from the message the statistics are conveying.
“An explanation of the methodology used to arrive at the daily number of infections was published on Dec 16. OSR has previously made clear its expectation that data and methods should be made equally available to all before any planned statement is made. Transparency of data used to inform decisions is vital to public understanding and public confidence.
“In this case, the delay between the use of the figure and the publication of the data was unsatisfactory.”
At the time experts today questioned the pessimistic projection, with one of the country’s most eminent statisticians calling the calculation into doubt.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, from the University of Cambridge, told MailOnline: ‘To get the figure of 200,000, they would need to assume a doubling time of 1.75 days, or a higher starting point.
‘It is very frustrating, to put it mildly, that such high-profile and surprising numbers are given without any publicly available justification.’
Professor of medicine and consultant oncologist Karol Sikora added to the criticism, stating the Government was deliberately ‘scaremongering’ the population into getting booster jabs.
‘It’s alarmist and all part of a deliberate PR ploy to get people the booster,’ he said.
‘It’s not a bad idea to get the booster, but you could see yesterday the system creaked under the pressure.’
Source: Daily Mail
