Americans are poised to enjoy their most substantial tax refunds in recent memory, thanks to the transformative One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This legislative change promises to bolster the average refund, offering taxpayers a welcome financial boost.

In an effort to uncover the full benefits of this policy shift, The Daily Mail consulted with tax experts. These specialists provided insights into maximizing refunds while also debunking prevalent myths associated with tax filing.

According to Don Schneider, the deputy head of US policy at Piper Sandler, the total refund amount is projected to surge by an additional $60 billion compared to the previous year. This marks a significant 18 percent increase over last year’s figures, when total refunds amounted to approximately $329 billion, as reported by IRS data.

For the average taxpayer, this means an individual refund increase ranging from $700 to $1,000. Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, confirmed these findings, stating, “On average, tax refunds are probably going to be up by $1,000 compared to last year.”

For individual filers, that translates to an average increase of between $700 and $1,000 in their refunds, tax experts told the Daily Mail.

Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, told the Daily Mail: ‘On average, the tax refunds are probably going to be up by $1,000 compared to last year.’

Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, told the Daily Mail: ‘Average refunds will be about $3,800 this year. For reference, in recent years it’s been between $2,900 and $3,100.’

But both York and Lautz emphasized that those averages will be buoyed by certain groups who are expected to receive particularly large refunds by being able to take advantage of new deduction opportunities and increases to some deduction caps. 

For the 85 percent to 90 percent of Americans who are expected to opt for the standard deduction when filing taxes, they will see a refund of a few hundred dollars higher than in previous years, rather than an increase closer to $1,000. 

The standard deduction for individuals was boosted to $15,750 from its previous level of $15,000, or up to $31,500 from $30,000 for married couples filing jointly. 

‘The changes that will affect the largest number of taxpayers will be the larger standard deduction and the boost to the maximum child tax credit, because those are provisions that are utilized by tens of millions of taxpayers,’ York told the Daily Mail. 

The maximum child tax credits York referenced were increased to $2,200 from $2,000.

Tax myths

When asked about whether filing taxes early yields a larger refund, which is a common myth, York told the Daily Mail: ‘Your refund is just a reflection of the difference in the tax you owe and the tax that you paid during the calendar year. 

‘So there’s no difference in your refund if you file right when filing season opens versus the end-date.’

Tom O’Saben, an expert with the National Association of Tax Professionals, told the Daily Mail: ‘The whole processing is done by computerized systems. 

‘There isn’t a way to flood the system early, and the IRS will miss things and you’ll get more money back by filing early. That’s a big myth that’s out there and easily debunked.’

Wednesday, April 15, is the deadline for filing federal taxes this year.

Lautz echoed his colleagues’ statements, but added that ‘Obviously, there are potential consequences if you don’t file on time and you haven’t petitioned for delay in filing your taxes.’

O’Saben added that people should be aware that filing an extension only gives more time to submit paperwork, not to pay. 

‘Even though you file an extension, you’ve got until October now to file your return, if you’ve got a balance due and you don’t pay it on April 15, you’re gonna be assessed interest and possibly penalties,’ he said. 

York also said that people should not conflate tax refunds with tax burdens. A refund results from overpaying taxes throughout the year, while a burden is the actual amount of money a person owes.

Pet owners may be disappointed to find out that they cannot file their furry friends as dependents, York confirmed. 

The tax expert also advised that despite advice people may hear online, such as filing a home office as a deduction, it is not a good idea to inflate one’s expenses.

‘The IRS has really clear guidance on what is a business expense and what is not, and it’s advisable to follow the law and not mess around with deductions like that,’ she said.

How deductions work

Deductions reduce federal taxable income, lowering the amount of money a person has to pay. 

For example, someone who makes $70,000 per year and opts for the standard deduction of $15,750 would be taxed 22 percent of $54,250, rather than 22 percent of $70,000. 

Workers eligible for new provisions such as no tax on tips and overtime, which allows filers deduct up to $25,000 of tip income or $15,000 of overtime income, will see higher refunds this year compared to those who are only eligible for the increased standard deduction. 

If a waiter making $60,000 per year earns $10,000 of that through tips, then they would be able to deduct that amount from their income, in addition to the standard deduction. 

That would drop the waiter into a lower tax bracket, so they would be taxed just 12 percent of $34,250, which would mean paying $4,110.

The standard deduction would have brought that waiter’s taxable income to $44,250, which would also drop to a lower tax bracket but still mean paying $5,310. 

That’s a $1,200 difference in the amount paid.

New provisions & who benefits

Adults over the age of 65 will benefit from new increased deductions for seniors, which will allow them to take an additional $6,000 off their taxable income, on top of the standard deduction.

Parents will doubly benefit from the increased maximum child tax credits, as well as new ‘Trump accounts’ for babies born in 2025. Parents can open those accounts if their babies qualify, and the treasury will seed it with $1,000.

The money will be invested, and parents can add to it. Children with Trump accounts will be able to access the funds once they turn 18.  

Car owners will be able to deduct up to $10,000 spent on auto loan payments if the car was built in America in 2025 and purchased new. 

Although electric vehicle tax credits were eliminated under the new tax laws, Americans who bought one before September 30, 2025, can still claim the credit.  

High income Americans living in states with elevated taxes, such as New York and California, will benefit from a major bump to the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, which was raised from $10,000 to $40,000. 

Importantly, deduction caps across the board ease off the more money someone makes. 

‘That benefit is not unlimited. If you surpass $500,000 in income, that $40,000 SALT cap starts to phase back down to $10,000,’ Lautz told the Daily Mail. ‘So it’s not like multimillionaires will benefit from the higher SALT cap.’

Navigating the changes

All of these new rules and changes can be overwhelming. To figure out if you can get a larger refund this year, ‘carefully read through the instructions,’ York said.

‘There will be some changes on tax forms. So pay attention and make sure if there is a new provision, you qualify for that and you take advantage of it,’ she added. 

O’Saben emphasized the importance of filers verifying their social security numbers to ensure they are correct on returns. ‘If there’s no social security number, you could lose benefits,’ he said. 

He also advised using direct deposit to receive refunds, as a check could take eight to 12 weeks to arrive. Using tax filing software rather than filling out returns is also a good idea, he said. 

‘Don’t do paper returns, because you can actually eliminate those simple errors that we all make,’ O’Saben told the Daily Mail. 

‘Putting a number on the wrong line, math errors, simple things that at least you get something with the software that does a double check and suggests information.’ 

When filing taxes, everyone has the option to itemize or take the standard deduction. Although itemizing is more work, it is a good idea to check whether doing so would yield a larger total deduction than the standard one. 

Under the new provisions, that is especially applicable to high-income earners who can benefit from the elevated SALT deduction cap.

For people who gave a lot of money to charity, homeowners who spent a lot of money on property taxes or mortgage interest and car owners who purchased a new, American-made vehicle last year, it is also a good idea to look into itemization. 

If you fall into one of those categories, ‘those combination of itemized deductions may take you, if you’re a married couple, well above $31,500,’ Lautz told the Daily Mail.

‘And then it’s worth looking into whether you get a better tax advantage from itemizing rather than taking the standard deduction.’

A unique year

Across the board, tax refunds are expected to be higher this filing season than in previous or future years, because the new tax provisions were applied retroactively for 2025, and the IRS has not yet updated its withholding tables to reflect that. 

Withholding is based on a person’s anticipated tax bracket, assuming they take the standard deduction. Employers use the IRS’ withholding tables to determine how much should be taken out of worker’s paycheck.

Because the higher standard deduction has not yet been taken into account, Americans have been getting more of their paychecks withheld for taxes than they technically owe.

That will be reflected in a higher lump sum refund this filing season, as workers get back all of the money they overpaid in withholdings throughout the year at once. 

‘Starting in 2026, the IRS did adjust withholding tables to reflect the new tax law,’ York said. 

‘So this big tax refund year will really just be a one-time thing. Going forward, refunds should normalize and withholding should match up better with the new tax law.’

In future years, ‘taxpayers will experience the benefit… more over 26 or 52 paychecks, rather than a one-time benefit at tax time,’ Lautz said.