Former Governor Andrew Cuomo is leading significantly in the run-up to the upcoming Democratic mayoral primary next month. However, his competitor, Zohran Mamdani, seems to have more support among voters younger than 45 years old, according to a survey published on Wednesday.
The poll conducted by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion indicates that 37% of anticipated Democratic voters are backing Cuomo in what appears to be mainly a two-candidate contest. In contrast, Mamdani, a democratic socialist serving as a Queens Assemblyman, receives support from 18% of the voters.
“Right now Cuomo is on a path to success,” Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said.
“Someone is going to have to bring him down.”
The election will use a ranked-choice voting system, potentially giving other candidates a chance in subsequent rounds as the field narrows. Nonetheless, time is limited as the survey is released just a month before early voting starts for the June 24 election.
The poll found 9% of likely Dems supported Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, 8% backed city Comptroller Brad Lander and 4% for former city Comptroller Scott Stringer.
Brooklyn Sen. Zellnor Myrie trailed with 3%, followed by Queens Sen. Jessica Ramos (2%) and Whitney Tilson (1%).
A considerable 17% of likely Dems still said they were undecided.
When removing the undecideds in the simulated ranked choice voting contest, Cuomo starts at 44% in the first round, hits the majority 53% in the fifth round and defeats Mamdani 60% to 40% in the sixth round when all other candidates are eliminated.
Cuomo is capturing support of nearly half of likely Democrats age 45 and older, the poll showed.
Older voters tend to vote in larger numbers than younger voters in elections.
Mamdani led among voters under age 45 — with 38% compared to 18% for Cuomo, according to the survey.
Mamdani won nearly half the support of Democrats who describe themselves as “very liberal” while Cuomo led among liberal, moderates and conservatives.
Half of black voters said they would support Cuomo, as did 41% of Latino voters, double the 20% support for Mamdani.
One in seven African-American Dems support Adrienne Adams.
Jewish voters were more split — 26% for Cuomo, 17% for Lander, 14% for Mamdani and 10% for Adrienne Adams, no relation to incumbent Mayor Eric Adams.
About half of Democrats in the Bronx, Queens and Staten Island backed Cuomo, while the ex-governor was ahead by a narrower margin in Manhattan, the poll found.
Brooklyn was split, with 25% for the ex-governor and 25% for Mamdani, according to the survey.
A Cuomo primary victory would be a startling comeback after he resigned as governor under the threat of impeachment in 2021 over sexual misconduct accusations he denies.
A stunning 81% of likely Democratic primary voters polled said New York City is going in the wrong direction, while 19% said it’s headed in the right direction.
Current Mayor Eric Adams has dropped out of the Democratic primary and is planning to run for re-election under his own independent ballot lines.
Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa is the Republican nominee for mayor while lawyer Jim Walden is also running as an independent.
The Marist College survey of 3,383 likely Democrats was conducted from May 1-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
Early voting for the primary runs from June 14-22.
