CA gas prices set to surge — and it’s unrelated to Iran

This spring, California motorists are encountering yet another reason for the uptick in gas prices, and it’s not linked to geopolitical tensions or reductions in oil production. The primary factor driving this increase is the transition to summer-blend gasoline, a seasonal change that traditionally sends prices soaring in the Golden State as summer approaches.

Marie Dodds, the Public Affairs Director for AAA Oregon/Idaho, explains, “Gas prices are climbing as refineries undergo maintenance ahead of the switch to summer-blend fuel. The uncertainty lies in how ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran might further affect crude oil prices, potentially leading to additional volatility at the pumps, alongside the usual springtime increases.”

California refineries are already in the process of making this transition, marking the state as the first in the nation to adopt this more costly, environmentally-friendly gasoline. The switch typically results in higher fuel costs due to several factors, including the maintenance of refineries, reduced output, and the increased expense of producing summer-blend gasoline.

According to the American Automobile Association, although crude oil prices have remained relatively stable, the transition to the summer blend has exerted extra pressure on prices, particularly on the West Coast. This seasonal fuel, designed with a lower Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), is crucial for reducing evaporation during the hotter months, thereby addressing air pollution in California’s warmer climate, as highlighted in a press release from AAA.

The changeover typically leads to higher prices at the pump due to a combination of factors, including refinery maintenance, reduced output, and the higher cost of producing summer-blend fuel, according to the American Automobile Association, In addition, while crude oil prices have been relatively stable, the switch to summer-blend has put additional pressure on West Coast prices.

Summer-blend gasoline is formulated with a lower Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) to reduce evaporation during hotter temperatures, a key requirement to combat air pollution in California’s warmer months, the press release from AAA says.

While it’s good for the environment, it also makes the gasoline more expensive to produce.

For example, while gas prices on the East Coast are relatively stable for now, California drivers are already feeling the pinch. California has the highest gas prices in the nation, with an average of $4.59 per gallon as of mid-February 2026 — well above the national average of $2.92 per gallon. according to AAA.

The switch to summer-blend gasoline isn’t unique to California, but it does affect the state more immediately.

While other states begin making the switch closer to May 1, California refineries start the process much earlier, with some areas requiring summer-blend fuel as soon as April 1.

California’s strict environmental regulations and its unique market dynamics mean the state’s drivers are the first to feel the pain of the changeover.

The average price of regular gas in California has risen by 38 cents from January to February 2026.

In addition to the seasonal transition, crude oil prices have seen fluctuations, although they’re not as volatile as they were last year. Crude oil prices briefly peaked at $65 per barrel in January 2026, and while they’ve since dipped to $62, they remain higher than the typical winter price ranges of $55 to $60.

The summer-blend fuel switch, compounded by rising tensions from the war in Iran and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, has already pushed gas prices higher and could lead to even more volatility at the pump.

If you’re in California, brace for higher gas prices in the coming months.

The switch to summer-blend fuel, combined with refinery slowdowns, will likely keep prices elevated throughout the spring and summer. Gas prices, already averaging $4.59 per gallon, could climb further, and with geopolitical tensions potentially impacting crude oil prices, volatility is expected.

Don’t expect relief until the fall, when winter-blend gasoline returns — likely in time for the holidays.


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