Even with unlimited funding and political will, it takes years to reskill a labor force and rebuild infrastructure. Formal trade apprenticeships typically require four years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And Intel estimates building semiconductor fabrication plants takes three to four years to complete.

Policy uncertainty is another major barrier. Companies hesitate to make long-term investments when trade policies could change within months or less.

Companies “won’t even start trying to hire and train people until they are convinced that there are permanent tariffs,” said Richard Mansfield, an economist at the University of Colorado Boulder. Instead of boosting domestic production, he said, it is likelier that companies will raise prices, find alternative suppliers — Vietnam, Chile — or both.

That played out during Trump’s first term when, under the threat of tariffs, companies moved production from China to Mexico.

Dennis Hoffman, an economist at Arizona State University, framed the tariff impact more bluntly: “You end up hurting consumers across the entire United States.”

Service strength

Meanwhile, a focus on producing goods overlooks another reality: America holds a global advantage in exports of services driven by business, travel and intellectual property.

The United States’ $25.2 billion services surplus is often hidden by its $156.7 billion goods deficit.