BILLS at TEXANS

8:15 p.m., Bills favored by 5½, Over/Under 43½

HANK’S HONEYS: While the Texans boast a formidable defense, their offensive prowess falls short of matching the Bills, which is likely to be the pivotal factor in this matchup. For those leaning towards backing the home team, there are valid points to consider. Josh Allen won’t find it as easy to advance the ball as he did in the second half against Tampa Bay, especially without tight end Dalton Kincaid. Last season, the Texans gave Allen a tough time, holding him to a 9-30-131 stat line in a narrow 23-20 victory, and their defense has only improved since. Additionally, with Buffalo’s run defense ranked 29th and Matt Milano underperforming, the Texans have a solid chance to exploit this weakness on the ground. However, the return of Shaq Thompson should bolster Buffalo’s defense. The disparity between Allen and Houston’s backup quarterback Davis Mills is significant (only Matthew Stafford among Texans’ opponents comes close in comparison), and the Bills are too seasoned a team not to have learned from last year’s loss. Mills, who is more of a game manager, frequently targets tight end Dalton Schultz, yet the Bills’ defensive ends excel at countering tight ends. As Thanksgiving approaches, the top teams start to shine, and we believe the Bills will rise to the occasion here, despite potential value in betting on the Texans.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the under.