An emerging El Nino phenomenon is brewing in the Pacific Ocean, with predictions suggesting a 61% chance of its development between May and July, as reported by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

This forecast also indicates a 25% likelihood of the system intensifying into a “very strong” event, prompting meteorologists to closely monitor the swiftly changing oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

This projection follows the conclusion of La Nina, which had a significant influence over the recent winter, paving the way for a shift in the tropical Pacific linked to the overarching climate cycle known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

This cycle oscillates between its warming phase, El Nino, and the cooler La Nina, with periods of neutrality in between.

El Nino conditions arise when weakened trade winds permit the accumulation of unusually warm water across the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

This transition can have global impacts on weather patterns, affecting rainfall and storm trajectories in regions like California, although the exact effects can differ significantly with each occurrence.

Scientists caution that while El Nino often tilts the odds toward wetter winters in SoCal, history shows the pattern is far from predictable. The infamous 2015–2016 “Godzilla” El Niño, one of the strongest on record, failed to deliver expected rainfall in the region.

Since 1950, there have been only five strong El Ninos and five very strong ones, according to researchers tracking ocean temperature anomalies.

“This potential developing event has more access to warm water than any of those past events had and has also achieved more westerly wind forcing in the western Pacific than any of those previous events,” Paul Roundy, an atmospheric scientist at the University told the SFGate.

Still, he cautioned it is too early to lock in expectations for next winter.

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