WASHINGTON — Elon Musk’s SpaceX has taken decisive action against Russia by cutting off its unauthorized exploitation of the Starlink satellite internet, delivering a significant blow to Moscow’s military efforts amid a surge in its casualty numbers.
On February 1, SpaceX disabled the use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine that were found attached to Russian military equipment and drones acquired illicitly. This contravened Starlink’s service terms, which explicitly prohibit their use in aggressive operations.
Following this, only authenticated Ukrainian devices have been granted access to Starlink, effectively barring Russian forces from utilizing the service.
“Their offensive operations significantly dwindled for three to four days post-shutdown,” stated Lt. Denis Yaroslavsky, who leads a reconnaissance unit for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
This interruption occurs as Russia faces its highest casualty figures since the conflict’s inception four years ago, according to intelligence from the US and Ukraine. Such losses jeopardize the Kremlin’s capacity to replenish troops sacrificed under Vladimir Putin’s command.
“On a typical day, our sector was achieving a 20:1 casualty ratio even prior to the shutdown. And we are a specialized unit,” shared a commander from Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps, known by the alias “Jackie,” highlighting their success in inflicting 20 Russian casualties for each of their own.
“Regular units have no problem going 5:1 or 8:1.”
“With Starlink down, 13:1 [casualty rate] for a regular unit is easy,” he added.
While the rates vary from theater to theater,
While Russian-to-Ukrainian casualty ratios vary across the battlefield, the imbalance got as high as 27 Russian losses for every Ukrainian when they fought to regain the key city of Kupiansk in December, according to a Bloomberg report Monday citing an intelligence assessment provided to the British military.
“Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told European counterparts this week that Kyiv was able to inflict more Russian casualties than the Kremlin was able to recruit over the last two months,” Bloomberg reported, citing UK Defense Secretary John Healey.
In all, more than 1.2 million Russian troops have been killed, wounded or vanished since February 2022 — “more losses than any major power in any war since World War II,” according to a late January report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
That’s roughly twice the number of Ukraine’s casualties, which the report estimated at between 500,000 and 600,000.
Any degradation of Russia’s battlefield capabilities could shift leverage in Ukraine’s favor as the US pushes for a negotiated end to the conflict, analysts have said.
The elimination of Starlink has also affected the Russian military’s communication systems and methods, affecting the most basic of tools needed to conduct their war.
“I’m sure the Russians have [alternative options], but it takes time to maximize their implementation and this [would take] at least four to six months,” Yaroslavsky said.
Russia’s Rubikon drone unit, for example, saw its activity sharply drop after the restrictions took effect.
The unit had been using Starlink to extend the range of strike drones and coordinate attacks deep behind Ukrainian lines — giving Moscow a technological edge in key sectors of the front.
The group typically posts geographic details about its strikes to Telegram, but has since stopped the practice, “suggesting that SpaceX’s decision to restrict Russian forces’ access to Starlink on February 1 has been negatively impacting Rubikon’s strike campaign,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in its latest battlefield update on Sunday.
Starlink has been a backbone of Ukraine’s military communications since the invasion, but Russian forces increasingly exploited the same technology — raising alarms in Kyiv and Washington that a US-made system was helping Moscow wage war.
For now, Russian troops are scrambling for alternatives — but none match Starlink’s speed, mobility and reliability on the battlefield.
