WASHINGTON – Three years after severing ties with Taiwan to embrace diplomatic relations with China, Honduras finds itself in turmoil as local shrimp farmers express growing frustration.

In 2025, exports to Taiwan plummeted to only $16 million, a stark contrast to the more than $100 million recorded in 2022. Unfortunately, the anticipated economic boost from Chinese markets has not materialized.

Javier Amador, executive director of the National Aquaculture Association of Honduras, voiced the disappointment felt by many. Reflecting on former President Xiomara Castro’s decision to cut ties with Taiwan in favor of opening an embassy in Beijing back in 2023, Amador stated, “We were deceived.”

Since taking office in January, President Nasry Asfura, who gained support from former President Donald Trump during his election campaign, has initiated a review of Honduras’ agreements with Beijing. This move has sparked speculation that the country may shift away from China, aligning with a broader Trump-led initiative to diminish China’s influence in Latin America.

President Asfura is slated to attend a security summit hosted by Trump at his golf course near Miami on Saturday, alongside other regional leaders.

“Honduras is arguably the most likely nation currently to revert diplomatic recognition back to Taiwan,” suggested Francisco Urdinez, an associate professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile. He added, “President Asfura campaigned on this promise, met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago shortly after assuming office, and his vice president has affirmed the administration’s intentions.”

“But it’s not as simple as flipping a switch,” he said, noting that Honduras has signed more than a dozen agreements with China since 2023.

China and Taiwan were both diplomatic in responding to questions about a potential shift in allegiance.

Liu Pengyu, the spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said Honduras has better prospects for its long-term development since establishing diplomatic ties with China and both countries have “reaped fruitful cooperation outcomes in various fields.”

The Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, the island’s de-facto embassy in Washington, said Taiwan will continue to advance relations with Honduras “in an open and pragmatic manner, without preconditions, and on the basis of equality and reciprocity.”

The Honduras government has not responded to a request for comment.

Taiwan as a barometer of influence

Latin America’s ties with Taiwan have gained attention because they have become a barometer of the power balance between the world’s two largest economies.

Beijing considers Taiwan to be Chinese territory, while Washington, despite its lack of formal ties with Taiwan, is the island’s strongest partner and has vowed to help Taiwan keep its formal allies, seen as necessary for the island to eke out a legitimate space on the global stage.

Of the 12 governments that still recognize Taiwan’s statehood, seven are in Latin America, including Guatemala, Paraguay and five in the Caribbean.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a visit to Guatemala in February, thanked the country for sticking with Taiwan.

“It’s not easy in a world where there is a lot of pressure to change that recognition and to break those ties, but you have always stood firm,” Rubio said, as he promised to work with Guatemala to deepen its economic ties with Taiwan.

Rep. John Moolenaar, chair of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, had a similar message when hosting a delegation from Guatemala in November.

“While too many countries bow to the bullying of Beijing, Guatemala stands with the people of Taiwan and prospers through a strong trade relationship,” Moolenaar, a Michigan Republican, said. “I support Guatemala’s efforts to oppose Chinese aggression in our hemisphere and look forward to working with Guatemala on areas of common ground.”

U.S. lawmakers have introduced a bill that could provide $120 million over three years in assistance to Taiwan’s partners.

Thousands of shrimp farmers lose their jobs

In 2016 and 2017, Panama, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador all switched their allegiance from Taipei to Beijing. Nicaragua flipped in 2021, and Honduras in 2023.

The loss of the Taiwanese market led to the closure of at least 95 shrimp farms and one processing plant, the loss of more than 25,000 direct and indirect jobs, and the loss of millions of dollars in foreign exchange for the Central American country, according to Amador.

“Most of the companies closed in 2024 because many couldn’t ship to other markets, and China hasn’t been the answer, because we’re not competitive for them,” he said.

Amador hopes the president restores ties with Taiwan for the benefit of the 330 shrimp farming companies that are still operating.

“The issue of returning to Taiwan is not about recovering what we have already lost, but about whether we are going to start over to reactivate industry, improve productivity and generate foreign currency and employment,” he said.

Honduras’ new president has a dilemma

For Asfura, who campaigned on severing ties with Beijing, there’s more to untangle. China has hundreds of millions of dollars worth of investments in Honduras.

Enrique Millán-Mejía, senior fellow on economic development at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, said Honduras could confer “a special status” on Taiwan and withdraw from Beijing’s global infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative, which has helped the Chinese government open markets and extend its influence.

Last year, Panama became the first Latin American country to quit the Belt and Road Initiative, prompting an angry response from Beijing, which accused the U.S. of using “pressure and coercion” to undermine the cooperation.

Urdinez said Asfura may go further and rebuild formal ties with Taiwan.

“Asfura’s calculus is fundamentally about the U.S., not about Taiwan per se,” Urdinez said. “Taiwan recognition is essentially the price of admission to Trump’s good graces.”

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Gonzalez reported from Tegucigalpa, Honduras.