The much-anticipated 2025 elections are drawing to a close on November 4. As the big day approaches, it’s time to unveil my intricate yet reliably precise predictions on the outcomes.
In the gubernatorial race in Virginia, former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger is pitted against the current GOP Lieutenant Governor, Winsome Earle-Sears.
According to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, Spanberger is leading with 50.7% compared to Earle-Sears’ 43.1%. This margin has remained relatively steady since our last update. With Spanberger surpassing the 50% mark, it signals a potentially challenging position for her opponent.
Meanwhile, in the race for Lieutenant Governor, the Republican candidate John Reid, despite minimal funding, is trailing closely behind Democratic contender Ghazala Hashmi.
- Abigail Spanberger is not a good candidate, but Winsome Earle-Sears has been criticized as well.
- Virginia has become a Democrat leaning state thanks to the growth of the federal government. However, state campaigns can be a different beast (see above).
- The prior history of Virginia shows that the incumbent president’s party (almost) always loses the off-off year elections for governor, except in 2013 when the Democrats heavily outspent the GOP and gamed the race by propping up a conservative leaning independent.
- For most of the campaign, the Democrats were heavily outspending the GOP.
- However, “(a)ccording to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, the Earle-Sears campaign is currently set to vastly outspend Spanberger on the airwaves in the final stretch of the campaign… The Republican Governors Association’s Right Direction PAC also poured $4 million into Earle-Sears’s campaign on October 28.”
- The final ad from Earle-Sears ties Spanberger to her Attorney General ticket mate, who has been rocked by scandals (see below).
- I think it is a stretch to believe that ticket-mate scandals would substantially affect the governor’s race.
- If any state shows a backlash to the GOP for the government shutdown, federal government worker-heavy Virginia will be that state.
- Spanberger’s campaign has her campaigning in rural GOP heavy areas, which is usually a sign of confidence.
In the Attorney General’s contest, after a series of October surprises affecting Democratic candidate Jay Jones, the Republican incumbent, Jason Miyares, has gained an edge in the RCP polls. Miyares leads Jones with 46.8% to 43.3%, and he is ahead in all ten polls averaged, though some show a tighter race.
In the Attorney General’s race, following the October Surprises against Democrat Jay Jones, incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares has established a RCP poll lead over Jones, 46.8 percent to 43.3 percent. Miyares is leading in all 10 polls in the average, although some by closer margins.
Therefore, putting all these variables together in my model, I unfortunately expect Spanberger to win the Governorship, by a solid margin. I do not expect, however, a double-digit margin. Ghazala Hashmi will more narrowly win the Lt. Gov. position. And Jason Miyares will narrowly win a second term as Attorney General.
Now go out and vote (if you are in these areas).
Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.
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