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In a significant kickoff to the 2026 midterm elections, voters in Texas are gearing up to choose their candidates for the U.S. Senate, with both major parties facing pivotal primary contests. As each party attempts to secure a strong candidate, the outcomes could shape the political landscape in the Lone Star State for years to come.
On the Republican side, the race is particularly intense as incumbent Senator John Cornyn finds himself in a challenging battle against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Representative Wesley Hunt. The primary stakes are high, and if no candidate secures more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two contenders will advance to a runoff in May. Despite Cornyn’s financial advantage, Paxton has maintained a lead in early polling, stirring concerns among establishment Republicans about his potential vulnerability in the general election. Paxton counters these doubts by highlighting his resilience in past political challenges and insists he is well-positioned to triumph in November if nominated.
Meanwhile, the Democratic primary presents a clash of endorsements and ideologies. Former President Barack Obama has thrown his support behind James Talarico, a white pastor, while former Vice President Kamala Harris backs Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, an influential black leader from Dallas. Talarico gained unexpected momentum following a controversy involving a misrepresented claim about an interview with Stephen Colbert. Crockett, who has enjoyed a steady lead, now faces uncertainty due to possible low voter turnout in her stronghold. This contest not only determines the Democratic Senate candidate but also highlights the ongoing struggle within the party over its future direction as it eyes the 2028 presidential race.
Beyond the Senate primaries, several Republican incumbents, including Representatives Tony Gonzales and Dan Crenshaw, are facing strong challenges and could potentially be unseated in down-ticket races.
Elsewhere, North Carolina also holds its Senate primaries on Tuesday. Here, the Republican nomination is likely to go to former RNC chairman Michael Whatley, while Democrats are expected to back former Governor Roy Cooper. Although the federal races in Arkansas are less competitive this cycle, Senator Tom Cotton is seeking re-election, underscoring a steady GOP presence in the region.
As the polls close—7:30 p.m. ET in North Carolina, 8 p.m. ET in most of Texas (9 p.m. ET in its westernmost counties), and 8:30 p.m. ET in Arkansas—voters and political analysts alike will be watching closely. Stay tuned for live updates and in-depth analysis as these crucial early primaries unfold and set the stage for the 2026 midterm elections.
UPDATE 10:04 p.m. ET:
It looks like Talarico is likely going to defeat Crockett in the Texas Democrat Senate primary:
UPDATE 9:44 p.m. ET:
it appears as though Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) has lost his primary to Steve Toth:
Crenshaw, one of the biggest neocons in Congress, has long been an advocate for war. This loss is likely to reverberate around Washington in a massive way, and likely will spook Republicans as the just-launched war with Iran continues. It could lead to pressure on Trump from inside the GOP to wrap it up quickly in Iran.
UPDATE 9:32 p.m. ET:
This is not official yet, but Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report says that Cornyn and Paxton will advance to a runoff in May.
The final results are still trickling in slowly but surely, and how each candidate finishes and in what order–and how much support they have in total–is all still unknown. But this would suggest that Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) did not have the juice to pull this one off.
UPDATE 9:28 p.m. ET:
Rep. Al Green (D-TX) is in serious trouble in his own primary after he was drawn into the same district as a fellow Democrat, Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX). Green going down to a freshman member in a member-member primary would be a huge deal, as he’s been around for a long time in the House. He’s also one of the loudest voices in favor of impeaching Trump, so this would be a setback for that effort on the Democrat side if he were to go down:
UPDATE 9:23 p.m. ET:
Cooper won on the Democrat side in North Carolina, too, setting up a showdown in November with Whatley:
UPDATE 9:23 p.m. ET:
As expected, both Whatley and Cotton won the GOP nominations respectively in North Carolina and Arkansas:
UPDATE 9:18 p.m. ET:
In the GOP primary in Texas, Paxton is inching ever so closer to Cornyn. With just 40 percent reporting, Cornyn’s lead is down to less than 3 percent–Cornyn is at 42.8 percent to Paxton’s 40.2 percent–and down to just about 25,000 votes.
UPDATE 9:05 p.m. ET:
If Talarico does end up winning, Crockett’s attacks on the integrity of the outcome–she is blaming “cheating” already–are unlikely to help him unite Democrats after a bruising primary:
UPDATE 9:00 p.m. ET:
Down-ticket in Texas, Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) appears to be in very serious trouble and may be cruising toward a loss in his primary. This would be earth-shattering in Washington:
UPDATE 8:57 p.m. ET:
With 35 percent reporting in the Democrat primary in Texas, Talarico has taken the lead 52.1 percent to Crocket’s 46.8 percent. It’s looking really tough for Crockett to come back from this.
UPDATE 8:35 p.m. ET:
The Democrat primary is tightening big time, with Talarico catching up but still trailing Crockett by a few percent. Nonetheless, he is considered the “heavy favorite” at this point with the margins he is getting in key places, per Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report:
UPDATE 8:32 p.m. ET:
Some races in Texas are starting to see some calls–these are unsurprising:
UPDATE 8:28 p.m. ET:
That same New York Times report on the spending in Texas also revealed that Cornyn and his outside allies outspent Paxton by even more–$69 million for Cornyn to just about $4 million for Paxton. These numbers are astounding in both races.
UPDATE 8:25 p.m. ET:
If Talarico does pull off the 11th hour finish, it will likely be because of megadonors who surged in to back him at the end with tens of millions more dollars than Crockett spent on her campaign. Per the New York Times, “in the photo-finish Democratic primary contest, supporters of State Representative James Talarico have helped him heavily outspend Representative Jasmine Crockett and her allies by about $24.5 million to $5 million on ads..”
UPDATE 8:18 p.m. ET:
The early returns in Texas suggest that the expectations of both Crockett and Talarico going into the race were right:
UPDATE 8:16 p.m. ET:
With 9 percent reporting on the Democrat side in Texas, Crockett leads Talarico 53.9 to 45.3 percent–by about 22,000 votes–with a long way to go.
UPDATE 8:14 p.m. ET:
With 11 percent reporting on the GOP side in Texas, Cornyn leads Paxton by about 22,000 votes–46.1 to 37.5 percent–with a long way still to go.
UPDATE 8:10 p.m. ET:
The first results are coming in from Texas, and it’s very early but Crockett has a huge lead over Talarico and Cornyn has a huge lead over Paxton–both of these are sort of surprising. However, only 9 percent of precincts are reporting so far so it’s early and this will likely change.
UPDATE 8:07 p.m. ET:
Crockett, along with Colin Allred, is crying foul about reported widespread issues in the Dallas area:
UPDATE 8:04 p.m. ET:
Polls have closed in North Carolina and Texas. Results are expected imminently.
