(The Hill) – Zohran Mamdani surprised political analysts nationwide on Tuesday as he is poised to clinch the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor, surpassing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Although the winner has yet to be officially announced, Cuomo conceded defeat before all the votes were counted. Just under two hours post-election, he addressed his supporters, acknowledging “tonight belonged to Assemblyman Mamdani,” highlighting a significant shift in American politics.
Mamdani managed to close the gap with Cuomo over the past weeks, despite trailing in most polls against the ex-governor, who started his campaign in March as the leading contender. However, Mamdani’s support surged as the primary neared.
Here are five takeaways from the night’s results:
Mamdani’s historic upset
Mamdani’s rise is one of the most stunning in recent memory.
He entered the Democratic race to replace embattled Mayor Eric Adams in the general election as a little-known state legislator who had only served in office since 2021. He started out in single digits in polling, well behind Cuomo, and found himself in the middle of a pack of other candidates trying to break through.
His momentum was apparent in recent weeks as he closed the gap behind Cuomo in the polls and gained several high-profile endorsements from top progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). The progressive Working Families Party also called on voters to rank Mamdani first on their ballots.
How much he closed the gap seemed up in the air as polls varied significantly. While one independent poll showed Mamdani within range of Cuomo and prevailing in the final round, most of the polls consistently showed Cuomo ahead.
But that polling lead didn’t materialize as voters headed to the polls. Mamdani is currently on track to be ahead in the first round and won’t need as much support from other candidates’ voters to reach a majority.
With 92 percent of the estimated vote in as of Tuesday night, Decision Desk HQ found the New York State Assembly member leading the pack at close to 44 percent, while Cuomo had 36 percent of the vote and New York City Comptroller Brad Lander sat at 11 percent.
Ultimately, Mamdani’s victory is likely to go down as one of the most stunning upsets in recent political memory.
Cuomo’s next move in question
Cuomo’s concession of the Democratic primary on Tuesday may have added to the stunning effect of the night’s results, but New York City voters might not have seen the last of him.
Cuomo announced in May that he would also run in the general election under the banner of the Fight and Deliver Party, saying at the time that he wanted to secure the largest coalition possible and appeal to those disillusioned with the Democratic Party.
As long as he receives enough signatures to appear on the ballot, and assuming he decides to go forward, this would likely ensure him a spot facing off against Mamdani again.
But Cuomo seemed uncertain about whether he would go through with this general election campaign, saying he’ll take time to decide how to go forward.
“I want to look at all the numbers as they come in and analyze the rank choice voting,” he said in a statement. “I will then consult with my colleagues on what is the best path for me to help the City of New York, as I have already qualified to run for mayor on an independent line in November.”
A huge night for progressives
After a few notable defeats or close calls in recent months, Tuesday night offered a much-needed shot in the arm for progressives.
Mamdani, a democratic socialist, had the backing of Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, the de facto leaders of the progressive movement, and observers were watching closely to see if the two members of Congress scored an important symbolic victory in the New York City primary.
Notably, Mamdani made no effort to distance himself from the left wing of his party, which has struggled to repair its image in the wake of former Vice President Harris’s loss in November.
Cuomo, meanwhile, had received the backing of more establishment Democrats in addition to a handful of members of Congress, including New York Reps. Adriano Espaillat, George Latimer, Tom Suozzi and Ritchie Torres. Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) also offered an endorsement in the race.
Mamdani’s strong performance so far in the race is notable given progressives have suffered some losses over the last year, including both Bowman and former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) — some of the most high-profile progressive members of Congress who lost their primaries last cycle.
His victory comes amid an intraparty battle between the progressive and establishment wings of the party. Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders have sought to harness grassroots progressive energy around the country through appearances focused on ending American “oligarchy.”
This year’s New York City mayoral race is also a far cry from 2021, which catapulted Eric Adams, who was campaigning then as a centrist Democrat with a background as a former police officer, to mayor’s office. Voters have since soured on Adams, who was embroiled in a corruption case that was ultimately dropped earlier this year.
In other races in the city, progressive Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg coasted to easy primary wins against more moderate challengers.
Mamdani’s diverse coalition
Key to Mamdani’s victory was his strong performance not just with groups with which he had been polling well, but also with groups that polls suggested weren’t as favorable to him.
Polling had regularly shown Mamdani’s strengths to be with young voters, in particular millennials and those from Gen Z, while Cuomo relied on an aging population. The results come as many Democrats have expressed frustration with the party’s old guard and called for generational change.
Mamdani was also seen to be stronger with white voters and those with college degrees, the latter of whom increasingly are part of the Democratic base and are regular voters. But Mamdani also performed decently with groups that Cuomo had leaned on, winning in some mixed Black-Hispanic areas and keeping his losses in Black areas to smaller amounts than expected.
He also won in some wealthy older white areas. Mamdani was expected to perform well among wealthier voters, but older voters were key to Cuomo’s path to victory.
Will Dems look to NYC as a guide?
One question looming over the party after Tuesday night will be whether Democrats use Mamdani’s campaign as a guide moving forward in their own elections, particularly as he sought to create a diverse coalition of key voting blocs and energized young voters – some of the same ones the party struggled with last cycle.
The mayoral election may also prompt some members of the party to reconsider voters’ appetites toward voting for new and diverse candidates. Many establishment and centrist Democrats aligned themselves with Cuomo despite his controversies as Mamdani was viewed as politically too far left by some. But if Tuesday night demonstrated anything, it’s that Democrats aren’t shy about disrupting the status quo and rejecting powerful Democratic brands.
Political observers, of course, can only extrapolate so much from one singular election. Yet the election comes against the backdrop of a party that is struggling with how to counter President Trump in his second term and giving its base reasons to be excited about voting for Democrats.
While the mayoral race could easily be seen as a moderate-progressive David vs. Goliath story, it’s also a part of a larger dynamic of younger candidates challenging older politicians. The primary results may add winds in younger Democrats’ sails, particularly those challenging older incumbents in Congress.
