Israel is grappling with an intensifying political crisis that threatens the stability of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition. One of its crucial ultra-Orthodox partners is considering exiting the government and supporting an opposition-led move to dissolve parliament next week. On Thursday, a major development occurred when the Council of Torah Scholars directed the Agudat Yisrael party to propose its own bill for dissolving the Knesset.

Recent Israeli opinion polls indicate that Netanyahu’s coalition would likely lose power if elections were held today.

The core of the crisis revolves around ongoing disputes concerning military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men. While the majority of Israelis must serve—men for three years and women for two—Haredi men have traditionally been exempted, a practice that is increasingly viewed as unsustainable amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

If these parties choose to withdraw, Netanyahu’s coalition could disband, noted Segal, stating, “The prime minister has a limited timeframe of seven weeks before the Knesset enters a prolonged recess, during which he will strive to maintain his position. However, with a bill to dissolve the Knesset poised to be submitted next week, there’s no assurance he will remain in office until July 27.”

Dozens of protesters stage a demonstration inside Jerusalem’s ultra-Orthodox Mea Shearim neighborhood, calling for the community to be drafted to the IDF. (Eyal Warshavsky/SOPA Images/Sipa USA/Sipa via AP Images)

The bill, introduced by opposition party Yesh Atid, led by former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, is set for a vote on June 11. It needs 61 votes to pass – a number that could be reached if even a few coalition members defect.

Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has announced a political comeback with a new party, tentatively called “Bennett 2026.” Israeli media polls suggest Bennett would win 24 to 28 seats if elections were held today, overtaking Netanyahu’s Likud, which is projected to receive only 19 to 22 seats.