Democratic bastions New York and California are experiencing a political shift that could significantly impact their influence in Congress. An analysis of recent census data, unveiled on Tuesday, indicates that these two states will collectively surrender six congressional seats by 2030, as the population gravitates toward the sunbelt.

The Redistricting Network has forecasted that New York will see a reduction of two seats in the House of Representatives due to its stagnant population growth. This trend, some critics argue, underscores a troublesome decline for the Empire State.

Meanwhile, California, once synonymous with rapid population expansion, is also facing a demographic plateau. The analysis predicts the Golden State will lose four seats, marking a notable shift from its historical growth patterns.

In stark contrast, states like Texas and Florida are poised for gains. Each is expected to add four congressional seats, fueled by their burgeoning populations, as reported by the network.

This comprehensive analysis was conducted by Jonathan Cervas from Carnegie Mellon University, utilizing the latest state-by-state population projections for 2025 recently released by the Census Bureau.

The analysis was prepared by Jonathan Cervas of Carnegie Mellon University, based on released state-by-state 2025 population estimates recently released by the Census Bureau.

Cervas is a redistricting expert who was appointed by the court to redraw New York House maps in 2022 following a partisan legal fight between Democrats and Republicans.

“This is not good news for New York or California,” said Jeff Wice, a New York Law School lawyer who has aided the New York City Council in redrawing district lines.

He said the blue states could lose even more seats if President Trump and Republicans are able to require a question on census forms asking about citizenship, which will later help determine states’ populations.

While the US constitution requires that all residents be counted regardless of legal status, Wice said, a question about citizenship could discourage illegal immigrants or others with questionable status from answering the form.

For the Empire State it’s the latest bad news about its sway in the House after it dropped from 45 representatives in the mid 1940s to just 26 today. It’s delegation would be reduced to 24 if the analysis’ predictions hold true.

The New York Republican Party blamed the population plunge to Gov. Kathy Hochul and Democrats dominating state government.

“Americans continue to vote with their feet, fleeing blue states and moving to red states,” said New York GOP spokesman David Laska.

 “Who could blame them? One-party Democrat rule has made New York the most taxed, least affordable, least free state in America. That’s why New Yorkers are going to fire Kathy Hochul, elect [Republican gubernatorial candidate] Bruce Blakeman and put New York on a path to growth, affordability and prosperity.”

California has 52 House seats — the most of any states — but it could drop to 48, according to the analysis.

After a century of gains, California lost one House seat in 2020.

Meanwhile, Texas would jump from 38 House seats to 42 and Florida would increase from 28 seats to 32 in a post census redistricting, according to the analysis.

Illinois, another blue state, also would lose another two House seats under the analysis — dropping 17 House seats to 15.