Republicans say they’re not panicking as they gear up for major races later this year and a fierce battle for control of Congress next year, despite getting shellacked in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race — and seeing their margins decrease notably in a pair of special House election wins in deep-red Florida districts.

Democrats have largely cast the 10-point win by the liberal candidate in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race on Tuesday as a rejection by voters of Elon Musk, the billionaire White House adviser who took on a starring role in the campaign. And while the two wins by GOP candidates in Florida gave the party some breathing room with their narrow House majority, the size of their victories paled in comparison to what Republicans enjoyed in those districts five months ago.

Republicans, however, downplayed the results as expected outcomes — criticizing some of the Republican candidates, discounting the prospect of any broader fallout from the heavy-handed role Musk played in Wisconsin, and suggesting that their candidates do a better job doubling down on explaining to voters Trump’s accomplishments, including divisive ones like his Department of Government Efficiency. 

They’re also focused on how to get the voters who put Trump over the top in 2024 to come out for other elections and candidates.

Democrats have found some early success demonizing Musk in the Wisconsin race and believe they can expand that strategy. But while Musk will “continue to be active” in GOP campaigns, his prominent role in the party may be about to change: Trump told members of his Cabinet on March 24, more than a week before Tuesday’s elections, that Musk would leave his government role in the administration in the coming months.

“I think a spring, off-year election with the deck stacked against you isn’t necessarily a fair analysis of Musk’s impact,” said one Virginia-based Republican strategist about whether the party would be wise to draw conclusions from the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. 

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella said in a Tuesday night statement that Democrats “set their cash ablaze” in the deep-red Florida districts. 

“Florida’s resounding Republican victories send a clear message: Americans are fired up to elect leaders who will fight for President Trump’s agenda and reject the Democrats’ failed policies,” Marinella said.

Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said Musk’s presence in his state was a net-positive: “He didn’t hurt, he just helped,” Johnson said of the recent race.

And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis swept aside the idea of the closer margins in Florida’s 6th Congressional District generating any broader concerns for the party. DeSantis blamed Republican Randy Fine’s 12-point margin — down from 30-plus points for Trump in the district last year — on Fine himself, saying the state legislator, with whom DeSantis has clashed in the past, was a lackluster candidate. 

“He repels people,” DeSantis said of Fine, adding that it “was unique problems with this candidate that was causing this to be a close race.”

Overall, said Jeanette Hoffman, a GOP strategist from New Jersey, which will host a gubernatorial race later this year, “I’m not seeing huge warning signs.”

“I’m seeing status quo in these elections, and I think Republicans need to focus on running excellent local campaigns based on local issues and making sure their voters turn out in November,” Hoffman continued.

Democrats believe Tuesday’s results show that their party has momentum ahead of this year’s governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as next year’s midterms more broadly. The Republican Senate majority looks well-defended, but Democrats need to net just five seats to flip the House.

“Republicans are running scared,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., told NBC News. “And they should be, because they’re not listening to American people. Their agenda is not popular.”

Musk effect

Democrats are also signaling they believe Musk could be an effective boogeyman for the party moving forward. 

“In this short period of time since the last election, we saw in these Florida elections, these bright red districts, the margins cut more than in half. And it’s because folks are rejecting the Trump-Musk agenda,” DelBene said.

Sam Newton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Governors Association, made it clear that the party was preparing to make the 2025 gubernatorial races about Musk and Trump, largely by charging DOGE with ruining lives by taking away government jobs and funding — a uniquely salient message in Virginia, which is home to more than 340,000 federal workers. 

“That’s where a lot of the DOGE effort is having the largest negative impacts,” Newton said. He added that it wouldn’t matter whether Musk left the administration imminently — or even curtailed his spending in the races later this year.

“They can try to run from Elon Musk, but it’s too late,” he said.

Republicans in Virginia, however, dismissed those warning shots, forecasting that the party would do more to further build the identity of the main Republican candidate in the race, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

“Virginia voters are smart enough to understand that they’re electing a governor,” said another GOP operative in the state. “They understand who is on the ballot: It’s not Elon Musk. It’s not anybody in the federal government. It’s going to be [Democratic candidate] Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Sears.”  

But Ed Rollins, a longtime GOP operative who is running a super PAC supporting conservative radio host Bill Spadea in the New Jersey governor’s race, suggested Musk may be better suited as a traditional billionaire political benefactor for GOP campaigns than as a top surrogate.

”My preference would be to have his millions of dollars to spend and have him send a check. I don’t think he wants to campaign anymore than he already has. It’s kind of a novelty for him,” said Rollins.

“Campaigning is a whole different perspective and you’ve got to move away from the sideshows,” Rollins later added. “And he was a sideshow obviously in Wisconsin.”

Focus on turnout

Some Republicans did say that Tuesday’s results showed that the GOP faces a persistent challenge in turning out Trump voters when the president is not on the ballot. 

“Special elections and off-cycle elections will continue to be a problem without a change of strategy,” conservative activist Charlie Kirk wrote on X Tuesday night, after referring to the party’s reliance on more sporadic voters.

“The base that came out to support Donald Trump during the presidential election, a lot of those voters stayed home,” said Hoffman, the New Jersey GOP strategist. “And we’re going to see a much lower turnout in the New Jersey governor’s race than we did in the presidential race last year. So both parties really need to look at getting their base out and making sure their turnout operation’s top notch.”

Hoffman said that turnout effort will hinge on affordability-focused messaging, with a high cost of living being the top issue in the high-tax state of New Jersey. She noted that Trump’s involvement in the race “would certainly help to bring out the Republican base.”

Two of the top candidates in the New Jersey race — Spadea and former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarellii — have closely aligned with Trump, both meeting with the president last month at his Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club. 

One of the GOP candidates, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, has been more critical of the president generally. But he did not see Tuesday’s results as signs that aligning with Trump is a problematic strategy.

“November is not going to be based on who you’re with, who you like, who likes you. It’s going to be: Are people tired of one-party rule in Trenton? I think the Democrats are very, very nervous in that regard, and they probably should be,” Bramnick said. 

The two Virginia Republican operatives who said the path to victory for the GOP candidate in the race would rely on her ability to tie herself closely to Trump and to the state’s popular Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited.

“You need to make certain that you’re locking arms with the president because he’s seized the mantle of common sense — that’s really powerful, and you need to lean back into that,” said one of the operatives.

Turning out those Trump voters will also be key for Republicans looking to hold onto control of Congress in next year’s midterm elections. 

Democrats need to net four seats to take control of the Senate. Just one GOP senator, Maine’s Susan Collins, is running in a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in November, so Democrats will be targeting some seats in states Trump won. 

Democrats will also have to reach into Trump territory to net the five seats they need to flip the House. While Democrats have plenty of ripe targets in districts that were decided by close margins last year, DelBene demurred on whether Tuesday’s results show that redder districts are in play.

“Our job and our focus is making sure we take back the majority in the House. It still is, and we are going to be playing in districts across the country to make sure we win,” DelBene said.