Prospect fever is a genuine phenomenon. Each season, fantasy baseball managers diligently check minor league statistics and prospect rankings, hoping to unearth the next breakout star before anyone else does.
While this strategy can be rewarding, holding onto rookies in your fantasy team is more complicated than it appears—especially when roster spots are scarce, and playing time isn’t assured. Besides talent, having the opportunity is equally crucial.
Take, for instance, top prospect Matt Shaw.
He is loaded with upside, but what makes him an appealing stash is his clear path to at-bats.
Shaw, an infielder in the Cubs organization, has rapidly advanced through the system and is on the verge of a big league call-up with minimal obstacles at second or third base, depending on what the team requires.
When a rookieâs timeline aligns with organizational need, stashing makes sense â even if the player is not on the roster yet.
Nevertheless, many prospects, even those producing elite numbers in Triple-A, are stuck behind established big leaguers. Case in point: Jordan Lawlar.
Lawlar, one of the most talented young infielders in the game, is raking at Triple-A Reno. His numbers are fantasy gold â .339/.419/.583 with seven home runs, 37 RBIs and 13 stolen bases.
But there is one big problem: There is no room for him in Arizonaâs infield. Ketel Marte is an All-Star at second, Geraldo Perdomo is quietly excelling at shortstop, and Eugenio Suárez remains a productive veteran at third.
Lawlarâs recent eight-game MLB call-up underscored the issue â he barely saw the field and was quickly sent back to the minors.
As long as the Diamondbacks remain healthy and competitive, Lawlarâs fantasy impact will remain limited â regardless of how ready he looks in the minors.
Another prime example is Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony. The 20-year-old is drawing attention with his high OBP and emerging power â .291/.422/.485 with nine homers and three steals at Triple-A Worcester.
From a raw talent perspective, Anthony looks like a future star. But Bostonâs outfield is crowded. Ceddanne Rafaela is a regular in center field, Wilyer Abreu is playing well in right, and Jarren Duran has secured left field.
Unless the Red Sox make a trade, shift Rafael Devers to first base (which opens up the DH spot or third), or move Rafaela to shortstop (pushing Trevor Story off the field), there is no room for Anthony to see regular big league at-bats.
In redraft leagues, wasting a roster spot on a stash with no clear timetable for promotion is dangerous. Roster flexibility is critical, especially during the long grind of the fantasy season, when injuries and slumps require constant adjustments.
Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting
The bottom line: Fantasy managers need to weigh not just talent but opportunity. Stashing a prospect like Matt Shaw? Go for it. But holding onto Jordan Lawlar or Roman Anthony in standard formats may do more harm than good â at least for now.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning âFantasy Alarm Radio Showâ on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball news and advice.
