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If Democrats were hoping for a game-changing bump following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, they’ve been disappointed by the last several polls. As RedState reported, Republicans continue to enjoy a modest lead in the generic ballot, and Joe Biden’s numbers show zero sign of rebounding. Given the historical connection between a president’s approval and the first mid-term, that’s nothing but bad news if you are on the left.
Biden’s unpopularity has descended so far into the depths that 71 percent now don’t want him to run for re-election. I can’t be certain, but I’d strongly suspect that’s the lowest number ever for a first-term president in just his second year.
71 percent don’t want Biden to run for reelection: Harvard Caps / Harris poll
Among the respondents who believe the president should not run:
45% say because he is a bad President
30% say he is too old
25% say it’s time for a change— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 1, 2022
Shocking numbers, but hardly surprising, right? We are talking about a guy who has driven the country off a cliff in ways that not even most conservatives thought imaginable a year-and-a-half ago. Perhaps I was naive, but with the economy opening back up post-COVID, I figured not even Biden could screw things up to this extent. Yet, here we are, with gas prices at $5 a gallon, a supply-chain crisis, inflation exploding, the stock market crashing, and a likely recession. Heck, not even cryptocurrency has survived the president’s path of destruction, with Bitcoin in a state of collapse. For the first time in decades, there’s nowhere to put your money without taking it on the chin.
And while you’d expect Republicans to want Biden gone no matter what, Democrat voters can only lie to themselves for so long. Many see the writing on the wall as Biden fumbles around, making mistake after mistake. Heck, sometimes even when he’s doing what they ostensibly want, such as green energy nonsense, the political realities just become too toxic to abide. Obviously, the fact that Biden would be in his mid-80s at the end of the second term plays a large role as well.
But as bad as those numbers are for Biden and Democrats, I actually think the latest numbers out of Nevada are worse.
Biden Job Approval Rating sinks to 28% in the Battleground State of NEVADA
Approve 28%
Disapprove 61%NV Independents
Approve 15%
Disapprove 75%NV Hispanics
Approve 31%
Disapprove 57%@Civiqs / 06/30 pic.twitter.com/gjI7cUAMaJ— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 1, 2022
Nevada may be the most important state in the 2022 election. Not only are there competitive House seats, but its US Senate seat very well could decide who controls the chamber. Republican gains with Hispanics have already put Democrats on the defensive, and if they can’t hold Nevada, it portends doom across the rest of the nation. Never mind the implications for 2024 given the Silver State has been solidly blue several cycles in a row.
The overturning of Roe was the last gasp, and it simply isn’t providing the juice needed to overcome these horrific fundamentals. Further, the January 6th committee is falling flat, and no matter what happens to Donald Trump, there’s no reason to think that will affect Republicans at large. That stuff is already baked into the cake, and if the former president were the drag Democrats want him to be, Glenn Youngkin wouldn’t be Governor of Virginia right now.
It’s always good to be cautious while making political projections, but it feels like we’ve passed the point of no return. What exactly is going to save Democrats at this point? Perhaps someone smarter than I am can come up with an idea because I’m coming up blank.
