While many Americans look to unemployment numbers or the price of groceries to gauge how well the economy is doing, there is a little-known metric that some say is a reliable recession indicator.

A former social worker who works part-time as an exotic dancer revealed she knew the US was in a recession when her coffers began to dry up. 

The woman, who goes by the name Vulgar Vanity on TikTok, dances part-time at a club in Austin, Texas, and she noticed her big months have dwindled to none and she’s now barely scraping by. 

‘They say sex workers are the first to let you know if there’s a recession, and let me tell you, they’re right and we are,’ the woman said while sitting on her back patio. 

‘Not only are we actively in it, but we’ve been in it for a little bit, but now it’s bad.’ 

The beauty returned to dancing in December after a two year break, during which she was living off her stripper money and another full-time job. But when she first started, she brought in nearly $100,000 in just a few months. 

In October 2022, she made $43,000 only working four days a week, she claimed in a TikTok. 

The next month, she made $37,000. Following a three-month break, she returned in March 2023 and made $20,000, totaling $99,000 in six months. 

‘And let me tell you, that was the last of my big hits,’ she told her followers. ‘I thought that was going to be a standard thing. B**ch, no!

A woman, who goes by Vulgar Vanity on TikTok, dances part-time at a club in Austin, Texas, and she noticed her big months have dwindled to none and she’s now barely scraping by. ‘There’s no money in the club, girl,’ she said (pictured: stock image)

‘The rest of the year, I scrape another $30k.’ 

She left the exotic industry for two years, returning this December. Although she didn’t reveal the amount of money she made, she acknowledged that winter months are typically slow. 

The former social worker, who used to work for Texas’ Child Protective Services, said she now only goes into the club a few days a week and makes enough to pay her bills and leave. 

‘I think since coming back in December, I’ve had three good nights total,’ she said in a follow-up video. 

She is also still relying on her savings to help get her by. 

‘It was way funner [sic] two years ago. It was way easier two years ago, we were actually spending money. Now, it feels like we’re pulling teeth. 

‘And we are definitely in a recession.’

DailyMail.com has revealed Vulgar Vanity for comment. 

From October 2022 to March 2023, she made nearly $100,000, having only worked three of those months. Now, she can barely afford her bills. ‘Not only are we actively in [a recession], but we’ve been in it for a little bit, but now it’s bad’ (pictured: stock image) 

While a recession has not yet been declared in the United States, studies have found that there is some truth to the idea that those in the sex industry can predict recessions, as pleasure spending drastically dips

While a recession has not yet been declared in the United States, studies have found that there is some truth to the idea that those in the sex industry can predict recessions, as pleasure spending drastically dips.  

‘In recessions, people are spending more on the things they need – their bills, food, energy, gas,’ labor economist Sania Khan told Glamour in 2022. ‘People are really feeling that in their pockets.

‘When people have less discretionary money, going to a strip club isn’t an immediate, necessary thing that they have to do. It’s kind of a leisure activity.’ 

An Urban Institute study, which was funded by the US government, found that the sex industry shrunk years before the 2008 recession fully consumed America. 

The phenomenon is known as The Stripper Index.

US workers are facing massive layoffs in several industries, including in media and the federal government, bringing the unemployment rate up to 4.1 percent as of February, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed. 

In January 2008, it was five percent. At its peak, in October 2009, it was 10 percent, according to BLS. 

Other indicators of a recession are lipstick sales, as women look for cheaper options and affordable luxury. 

Recession fears have skyrocketed amid increasing market volatility and uncertainty over policy direction from the Trump administration

‘When lipstick sales go up, people don’t want to buy dresses,’ Leonard Lauder, the former chairman of Estée Lauder, told The Wall Street Journal in 2001. 

Other indictors include men waiting longer to replace underwear, workers packing lunches, and an up in users on online dating apps, as people tend to stay home more, according to The Guardian. 

The probability of the US entering a recession within the next 12 months has climbed to 43 percent, according to a new survey from Deutsche Bank.

The figure comes from the average view of 400 people who were surveyed earlier this month and reflects a growing sense of unease among investors, economists, and business leaders.

While key economic indicators such as low unemployment and stable consumer spending suggest that the US economy remains resilient, consumer sentiment data now suggests expectations are rising of a potential downturn.

The survey comes amid increasing market volatility and uncertainty over policy direction from the Donald Trump administration.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week attempted to calm the nation with talk of resilience and stability, saying the economy remains ‘strong overall’ citing ‘significant progress toward our goals over the past two years’ – but the facts tell a more complicated story.

The Federal Reserve has revised its 2025 economic growth estimate downward to an annualized 1.7 percent – the slowest pace outside of the COVID-19 recession since 2011.

While politicians argue and economists debate, American households are already feeling the squeeze with grocery prices remaining stubbornly high

Such a bleak projection could be a red flag indicator that a recession looms.

The Fed also raised its core inflation forecast to 2.8 percent, well above its two percent target following last week’s two-day policy meeting.

Officials still project returning to that target by 2027, but the near-term combination of higher inflation and slower growth is drawing increased scrutiny from economists warning about the risk of stagflation – a dreaded mix of sluggish growth and persistent inflation not seen in the US since the early 1980s. 

While politicians argue and economists debate, American households are already feeling the squeeze.

Grocery prices remain stubbornly high. Rent increases continue to outpace wages in major cities.

And small businesses, once the backbone of local communities, are finding it harder to access capital or plan for the future in an atmosphere thick with uncertainty.

And the strip clubs are certainly feeling it too. 

‘There’s no money in the club, girl,’ Vulgar Vanity said in a video.