President Trump’s influence looms over this Sunday’s presidential runoff election, with surveys indicating a close contest between Warsaw’s mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, and his conservative rival, Karol Nawrocki.

The Associated Press noted that Donald Trump hosted Nawrocki at the White House earlier this month, and also dispatched DHS Secretary Kristi Noem to a CPAC gathering in Poland, where she expressed her support.

During her support speech for Nawrocki, Noem suggested he would lead in a manner similar to President Trump. “I recently had the chance to meet with Karol and hear him out. He must be the next president of Poland. Do you hear me?” she emphasized.

“This is arguably the most important Polish presidential election since the end of communism, not only because the contest is so close, but because there is a palpable sense in Warsaw of how dangerous the country’s security situation has become, with the ongoing war in Ukraine and Russian revisionism in full view,” Andrew Michta, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center, told Fox News Digital.

The Warsaw mayor favors closer ties with Brussels, Berlin and Paris but will also look to maintain stable relations with the U.S. Nawrocki, who met with President Trump and Republican leaders in Congress, would likely push for even closer relations with the U.S. 

While there is a rising number of voices that are critical of continuing support for Ukraine as the war drags on, no matter who wins, Poland’s foreign and defense policy and its support for Ukraine in its war against Russia is unlikely to change. 

Poland has been one of Ukraine’s toughest backers in Europe, providing 5 billion euros worth of overall aid, including nearly 4 billion euros in military aid, since the war began.

Polish troops guard the metal barrier border with Belarus, in Bialowieza Forest, on Wednesday, May 29, 2024. Poland says neighboring Belarus and its main supporter Russia are behind a surging push by migrants in Belarus toward the European Union. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Since the European refugee crisis of 2015, Poland has taken a tougher stance on immigration, particularly from the Middle East. Poland has been much more welcoming to Ukrainian’s fleeing Russian aggression. Poland has taken in more than 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees since Russian launched its invasion in February 2022.

Matt Qvortrup, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Studies at the Australian National University, said a Nawrocki win would be a roadblock to further European integration with another leader critical of Europe taking power.

“A win for Nawrocki would be unwelcome for the leaders in the most powerful EU countries, especially in Germany. It’s not the signal they would want,” Qvortrup told Fox News Digital.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.