Wrapping up his college education in China, computer science student Ma Tianyu is eyeing graduate school in the United States. He believes that no other country offers better programs for his desired career path as a game developer.

He applied only to U.S. schools and was accepted by some. But after the initial excitement, he began seeing reasons for doubt.

Initially, there was President Donald Trump’s trade war with China. Then, came the warning from China’s Ministry of Education about studying in the U.S. Observing the instances of legal status cancellations for international students in America, it dawned on him that he must consider how American politics might impact his plans.

These developments discouraged some of his peers from pursuing studies in the U.S., but Ma Tianyu remains committed to going. He expressed his willingness to “adapt to whatever changes may come.”

American universities, home to many programs at the top of their fields, have long appealed to students around the world hoping to pursue research and get a foothold in the U.S. job market. The durability of that demand faces a test under the Trump administration, which has taken actions that have left international students feeling vulnerable and considering alternate places to study.

“All of the Trump administration’s activities have been sending a message that international students are not welcome in the U.S.,” said Clay Harmon, executive director of AIRC, a professional association for international enrollment managers at colleges.

Competitors see an opening to carve into US dominance

Around 1.1 million international students were in the U.S. last year. A large decline in their ranks could cripple school budgets that rely on tuition from foreign students, who are ineligible for federal student aid and often pay full price to attend.

It’s too early to quantify any impact from the administration’s crackdown, which has included new scrutiny of student visas and efforts to deport foreign students for involvement in pro-Palestinian activism. But many fear the worst.

“Students and their families expect and need certainty,” said Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA, an association of international educators. “And they do not function well in a volatile environment like the one we have currently.”

The U.S. has been rebounding from a decline in international enrollment that was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. As top competitors such as Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom rolled back recruiting efforts and made immigration policies less welcoming, the U.S. appeared ready to bring in far more students.

Now, a few months into the Trump administration, industry experts say it’s unlikely the U.S. will be able to capitalize.

“The U.S. was so perfectly positioned to become the far and away, clear first-choice destination for international students,” said Mike Henniger, CEO of Illume Student Advisory Services. His company works with colleges in the U.S., Canada and Europe to recruit international students. “Then it just went out the door.”

In Canada, where colleges saw enrollment increases during the first Trump administration, they are hoping for another bounce. In a letter following the recent election, a member organization for Canadian universities urged the new Liberal government to address immigration policies that have affected recruitment of foreign students.

“This is a moment of real opportunity for the country to attract international talent,” said Gabriel Miller, president of Universities Canada.

America’s appeal as a place to start a career remains resilient

The U.S. holds strong appeal for students prioritizing career outcomes, in part because of the “optional practical training” program, which allows foreign students to stay on their student visas and work for up to three years, said Lindsey López of ApplyBoard, an application platform for students seeking to study abroad.

Graduates earning this post-college work experience were among the foreigners whose legal status or visas were terminated this spring.

Still, the diversity and size of the U.S. job market could help American schools stay ahead of the competition, López said.

“The U.S. is the largest economy in the world,” she said. “It’s just the vastness and also the economic diversity that we have in the U.S., with a whole variety of different industries, both public and private, for students to choose from.”

William Paterson University, a public institution of 10,000 students in New Jersey, typically has around 250 international students. It expects an increase in foreign students in the fall, according to George Kacenga, vice president for enrollment management. The school has focused on designing programs around STEM majors, which appeal to international students because they open access to OPT programs.

Students have expressed concern about securing visas, but most of the school’s international students are from India and report they are getting appointments, he said.

In Shanghai, many students in Austin Ward’s 12th grade class have either committed to attending U.S. colleges or are considering it. Ward teaches literature in a high school program offering an American Common Core curriculum for Chinese students.

Ward said he avoids discussing politics with his students, but some have asked him about the U.S. government’s termination of students’ legal statuses, signaling their concern about going to the U.S.

To Ward’s knowledge, the students who planned to attend American colleges have not changed their minds. Frustrated with the stress the situation has caused, Ward said he wrote a letter to his U.S. representative on the need to protect international students.

His students are coming to America to “expand their horizons,” he said, not threaten the country.

“If my students have to worry about that, and if students are losing their visas, then America is not going to have that strength of being an academic center,” he said.

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