An estimated 16,000 Russian troops are being deployed for a new offensive in eastern Ukraine, potentially starting within the next 10 days. The Kremlin aims to seize the additional 30% of the Donbas region that it currently does not control, according to a Ukrainian military commander who shared the information with The Post on Wednesday.
“In the Pokrovsk area, Russian forces are attempting to breach our defensive lines,” stated Maj. Oleh Shyriaiev, leader of Ukraine’s 225th Separate Assault Regiment.
“From my viewpoint—and I emphasize this is a personal opinion—the adversary is likely to gather further reinforcements in the area, with plans to launch a counter-offensive possibly within the next ten days.”
Pokrovsk, located in eastern Ukraine, is a strategic hub for logistics. Russian forces have been focusing efforts here for over a year in an attempt to gain control.
Situated in the contested Donetsk Oblast, Pokrovsk is a key target for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who aims for total control of the region. Despite ongoing efforts since the current conflict began three and a half years ago—and even since hostilities broke out in 2014—Russia has yet to capture the area.
Last month, Putin demanded that Kyiv concede the remaining Donetsk territory as a condition for peace. However, both Ukrainian and top US officials dismissed this demand, as informed by sources to The Post, since Russia is asking for a region it does not fully occupy.
This year, Russia has been fighting from four main axes: Sumy in north-central Ukraine, Pokrovsk in the east and Novopavlivka and Zaporizhzhia in the southeast.
As of Wednesday, half of those offensives have been defeated, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a post on X.
“The Sumy operation has already failed – Russia suffered heavy losses, especially in manpower, and has redeployed forces to other fronts. Ukrainian Armed Forces inflicted even greater losses on them there,” he said, without naming the second axis that fell.
“As a result, Russia is left with two operations. But it has lost so much manpower that it cannot deliver strong additional actions in the above mentioned directions,” he added.
But unlike Shyriaiev, Zelensky said he believed the Russian losses have been so severe that “as of now, they lack the strength for large-scale offensives.”
Still, Shyriaiev agreed that Ukraine has successfully beaten back recent Russian advances, most recently taking back a small village northeast of Pokrovsk that had been under Moscow’s occupation.
“Our battalion has managed to liberate a village called Pankivka and by that, we have created a threat for the enemy that had previously created a narrow salient,” he said.
“So we have created a threat of cutting off that salient.”
After the cut-off, “things are looking better” for Ukraine, Shyriaiev said, which also means it’s likely to become a key target of Russia’s very soon.
“So the situation is, if we will get timely support from our partners, then we will be able to also react to any such advances in a timely fashion,” he said, noting that his forces need additional artillery and munitions from foreign partners to fight back against the predicted Russian attempt to advance.
His call for aid came a day after Reuters reported that the Pentagon has approved at least two arms packages for Ukraine paid for by NATO partners, though it’s unclear what those packages may contain and when they may ship.
The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment on the reported package approvals this week.
While Ukraine is mostly self-reliant on its own defense industry for combat and reconnaissance drones, Kyiv still needs European nations to purchase and donate more traditional weaponry, such as howitzers, from the US.
While drones can take out small groups of forces, Ukraine uses artillery to strike larger targets and groups of forces that Shyriaiev predicts could be advancing soon.
“Artillery is important because different types of artillery systems of different calibers allow us to work from at different distances,” he said. “Without artillery, modern war is impossible.”
“You cannot cover all of the needs of all of the fighting needs with drones, so artillery is not losing its relevance,” he added.
