Two truths coexist when it comes to the Texas Longhorns this season: they have not lived up to expectations, yet they remain viable contenders for both the SEC title and the National Championship.

Currently holding a 6-2 overall record and 3-1 in the SEC, the Longhorns face a crucial stretch. To keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive, they must win their remaining games. Accomplishing this feat could also secure them a berth in the conference championship, a victory they might not even require depending on the performance of other top contenders.

The road ahead is daunting. The Longhorns’ upcoming schedule includes matchups against Vanderbilt, a challenging away game at Georgia, and formidable contests with Arkansas and Texas A&M. It’s important to recall that Texas entered the season as the favorite to conquer not just the SEC, but also to clinch the national title.

Despite the setback of Arch Manning’s concussion, the Longhorns possess the talent to achieve these ambitious goals.

Texas ranks as the 13th-best team nationally according to SP+, a comprehensive metric by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. This standing is bolstered by a stellar defense ranked third in the FBS. While the offense, sitting at 53rd, hasn’t quite matched the preseason hype, especially with the spotlight on Manning, there are still grounds for optimism.

Crucially, Texas has a clear path forward. Paradoxically, their challenging schedule could be their ally. Facing three of college football’s elite teams might enhance their standing in the eyes of the selection committee, as opposed to a lighter schedule that could leave them overlooked, even with a solid 10-2 record.

Wins over Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Texas A&M would make it nearly impossible to leave Texas on the sidelines, especially since one of their losses came against Ohio State.

Betting on College Football?

You can also spin Texas’ struggles on offense into a reason for optimism. The Longhorns have been able to stay alive despite an uninspiring attack, so any improvement on that side of the ball would go a long way toward turning Hook’em back into the team we all thought we’d see in August.

And even if the offense doesn’t get better, the Longhorns have a terrific defense, which means they don’t need to go out and blow teams away to get results. That should help ease the burden on the offense if Manning is forced to miss some time.

We also shouldn’t forget that we saw a team in a similar, though not identical, predicament win the national championship last season.

Ohio State lost twice in the regular season in 2024, including to Michigan in its final game. The Buckeyes still got into the dance thanks to wins over Penn State and Indiana, but they were unfancied when the tournament began. In fact, the perception of the Buckeyes was so low at the end of the campaign that there were plenty of Buckeye backers who wanted Ryan Day to lose his job.

A few weeks later, he was the toast of the town.

As things stand, Texas is 50/1 to win the National Championship and 20/1 to win the SEC (BetMGM Sportsbook). If those numbers seem tempting to you already, go for it. But you could also try to raise the ceiling of your payout by starting a rolling parlay with this week’s game against Vanderbilt. 

To do that, you’d bet Texas on the moneyline (-115) against Vanderbilt, and if they win, you’d take your stake plus the profit and put it on the Longhorns to beat Georgia. You’d repeat this process until they win out, lose, or you want off the ride.

Some quick back-of-the-napkin math shows a more robust payout if you take this route.

One thing we’ve learned in this new age of college football is that you should be very careful counting teams out. We saw it last year with Notre Dame and Ohio State, and we’re seeing it this season with the Irish and Alabama. Texas may not join that list, but there’s value betting on it happening.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.