WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump had confidently forecasted a prosperous 2026 for the U.S. economy. However, the year has begun on a less optimistic note, marked by layoffs, increasing gasoline costs, and heightened uncertainty about the nation’s economic outlook.
In a recent State of the Union address, Trump assured the nation that the economy was experiencing unprecedented growth, describing it as “roaring like never before.” However, recent statistics on employment, fuel prices, and stock market performance indicate that the economic boom he touted may be faltering.
The contrast between Trump’s optimistic projections and the current turbulent economic conditions could significantly influence this year’s midterm elections as he seeks to maintain Republican control of Congress. While grappling with ongoing trade tariffs and the inflationary pressures from the conflict in Iran affecting oil and gas prices, the administration remains hopeful that stronger economic growth is imminent.
No signs of a jobs boom
On February 11, Trump took to social media to express exuberance, declaring, “WOW! The Golden Age of America is upon us!!!” This came after a report showed a January increase of 130,000 jobs.
However, the employment landscape has since taken a troubling turn. The latest employment report revealed a loss of 92,000 jobs in February. Additionally, the figures for January and December were revised downward, with December now reflecting a 17,000 job loss. Although monthly data can be volatile, a persistent pattern of weakness is emerging. Excluding the healthcare sector, the economy has shed approximately 202,000 jobs since Trump assumed office in January 2025. Nevertheless, the administration points to job growth in construction outside the housing sector as a sign of potential future hiring increases.
Friday’s employment report showed job losses of 92,000 in February. The January and December figures were revised downward, with December swinging to a loss of 17,000 jobs. Monthly data can be rocky, but a trend has emerged that shows an enduring weakness. Without the health care sector, the economy would have shed roughly 202,000 jobs since Trump became president in January 2025. Still, his administration notes that construction job gains outside of the housing sector point to future hiring growth.
Trump often brags that jobs are going to people born in the United States, rather than to immigrants. But the latest report punctured some of that argument.
The unemployment rate for people born in the U.S. has climbed over the past 12 months to 4.7% from 4.4%. This means a greater share of the people who Trump said would get jobs because of his immigration crackdown are, in fact, searching for work.
Prices at the pump are going up
“Slashing energy costs is among the most important actions we can take to bring down prices for American consumers,” Trump said in a February speech in Texas just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. “Because when you cut the cost of energy, you really cut — you just cut the cost of everything.”
The president has repeatedly told Americans that keeping gas costs low would be key to defeating inflation. He has talked up the decline, citing figures that were far below the national average to assure the public that driving was getting cheaper.
But the strikes against Iran that began Feb. 28 have, for the moment, crushed that narrative. Prices at the pump have jumped 19% over the past month to a national average of $3.45, according to AAA. The investment bank Goldman Sachs warned in an analyst note that, if higher oil prices persist, inflation could rise from its 2.4% reading in January to 3% by the end of the year.
The administration is banking on plans to contain any energy price increases, essentially betting that either the conflict will end shortly or the administration can succeed in getting more tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump advisers on Sunday sought to assure anxious Americans that surging fuel prices are a short-term problem.
“We never know exactly the time frame of this,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN’s “State of the Union. “But in the worst case, this is a weeks, this is not a months thing.”
Stocks are off their highs
“You know, we set the all-time record in history with the Dow going to 50,000,” Trump said Thursday at the White House.
This frequently repeated talking point has grown stale. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of Trump’s preferred measures of success, has dropped 5% over the past month. Stocks are up during his presidency, just as they were previously when Democrat Joe Biden was president. The recent decline could be reversed if the war with Iran ends and companies see solid profits over the next year and beyond. The recent dip, however, should be a warning sign as the administration has stressed the importance of more people investing in the stock market through vehicles such as “Trump accounts” for children.
The stock market has become a barometer of how people feel about the economy, with stock investors tending to have more confidence and those without money in the markets being more pessimistic.
Joanna Hsu, the director of the University of Michigan’s surveys of consumers, noted that in February a “sizable” increase in sentiment among people owning stocks “was fully offset by a decline among consumers without stock holdings.”
Productivity is up, but workers aren’t benefiting
Trump can point to a win in that the economy has become more productive – generating more value for each hour of work. That is a positive sign for long-term growth in the U.S. and a reflection of its strong tech sector.
Business sector labor productivity climbed 2.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, the Labor Department reported Thursday. But the challenge is that the gains might not be spread to workers in the form of higher pay as labor’s share of income last year fell to the lowest level on record, noted Mike Konczal, senior director of policy and research at the Economic Security Project, a nonprofit aligned with liberal economic issues.
Economy grew at a faster pace under Biden
“Under the Biden administration, America was plagued by the nightmare of stagflation, meaning low growth and high inflation – a recipe for misery, failure and decline,” Trump said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.
The scoreboard tells a far different story, one that makes Biden’s track record in 2024 look better than Trump’s performance last year. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace during Biden’s last year, compared with 2.2% under Trump in 2025.
As for inflation, the primary measure used by the Federal Reserve is the personal consumption expenditures price index. It was 2.6% in both 2024 and 2025.
Trump has staked his economic argument on doing better than Biden. But while he has avoided the inflation spikes that haunted Biden’s presidency, he has not delivered stronger growth or more hiring.
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