A security specialist has highlighted the urgency of the initial 48 hours in the mission to locate an American Christian missionary abducted in Niger, West Africa. This individual may already have been transferred across territories controlled by an ISIS faction, as explained to Fox News Digital.

In an exclusive conversation with Fox News Digital, Bryan Stern, who established the crisis intervention organization Grey Bull Rescue, shared insights into the dynamics of organized kidnappings, noting that the original captors are often not the ones who ultimately detain the hostage.

“In many of these situations, the individuals who initially capture the hostage are not the ones who continue to hold them,” Stern stated. “The groups that manage hostages tend to be significantly more intelligent, resourceful, and less expendable, so acting swiftly can have a substantial impact.”

Stern emphasized that with each passing hour, the likelihood of a successful recovery diminishes. Hostages frequently change hands among groups with varying objectives, ranging from financial ransom demands to propaganda purposes, complicating efforts to discern the captors’ intentions.

This image from September 7, 2023, shows the presidential palace in Niamey, Niger, which has been under military junta control since President Mohamed Bazoum was ousted during a coup in 2023. (AFP via Getty Images)

“Identifying the initial captors is straightforward, but as hostages are transferred like commodities, understanding the new captors’ demands becomes challenging,” Stern commented.

The groups often operate with their own chain of command and pecking order, each with different goals and levels of influence.

“All those different things play into how you’re gonna get somebody back, and the most dangerous thing to do is send ninjas in and shoot everybody,” Stern said. “That’s the most highest-risk thing that we do because there’s no margin for error.”

Niger’s junta leader Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani salutes during an official ceremony in Niamey, Niger, on Aug. 26, 2023. Tchiani seized power in a July 2023 coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and has ruled the West African nation since. (AFP via Getty Images)

U.S. officials confirmed they are aware of the kidnapping, which took place in Niamey, about 100 yards from Niger’s presidential palace. The missionary, a pilot for the evangelical group Serving in Mission, was reportedly taken north toward an area controlled by an ISIS offshoot.

A State Department spokesperson said embassy officials are working closely with local authorities and that the Trump administration views the safe return of the U.S. citizen as a top priority. The U.S. Embassy has also restricted staff movements to armored vehicles and prohibited visits to restaurants and open-air markets.

Stern described the region as “31 flavors,” meaning there is everything from Russian proxies to criminal gangs and Islamic fundamentalists running around.

A general view of a crowded street market in Niamey, Niger, on May 17, 2023. The capital city has faced rising instability since the 2023 military coup that toppled President Mohamed Bazoum. (Michele Cattani / AFP via Getty Images)

While it’s easy to assume Islamist militants were behind the abduction, Stern cautioned, “until you know…it becomes speculation.”

“At some point, somebody will ask for something, you hope,” he said. “It’s very scary when they don’t ask for anything… the worst case scenario is a hostage taken by someone who doesn’t want anything. Then there’s no play to be made other than find them and kill them, and hopefully you survive that process.”

For now, the focus is on finding proof of life and establishing communication.

U.S. special operations units are likely monitoring surveillance and communications from the region, but Stern cautioned that a rescue attempt would be “the most dangerous thing special operations does.”

Officials have not said whether any group has claimed responsibility or issued any demands.