As diplomatic tensions escalate between Washington and the Maduro government, experts reveal that Venezuela’s military presence, while seemingly robust on paper, is fraught with internal corruption, decay, and political manipulation. Analysts indicate that although Venezuela would struggle to counter a decisive U.S. strike, any extended military operation could prove more complex than anticipated by U.S. leadership.

Isaias Medina, an international lawyer and former Venezuelan diplomat who publicly criticized his own leadership at the International Criminal Court, characterizes Venezuela as a nation under the grip of narcotrafficking networks.

“Venezuela resembles a fortress built on unstable ground, encased in a criminal regime,” Medina remarked, emphasizing that any potential U.S. intervention would be akin to displacing a nearby terrorist organization rather than invading a sovereign nation.

Medina highlighted the need for caution due to Venezuela’s dense civilian population, which has suffered under the regime’s control. “A strategy rooted in restraint and extended operational timelines is essential, avoiding targets that cannot be engaged without precision,” he advised.

Military personnel participate in a parade during Independence Day celebrations in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 5, 2023. (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

He further noted that the Venezuelan military’s perceived strength is largely superficial, with equipment deteriorating due to poor maintenance, and a bloated hierarchy of politically-appointed generals disconnected from approximately 100,000 lower-ranking troops, who may choose to desert under heightened pressure.

Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, told Fox News Digital that Venezuela’s most relevant threat lies in its air-naval systems — and even those could be quickly eliminated.

“You have to break this up,” he said. “There’s an air-naval part, which is most likely what could impact our strike operations,” including fighter jets, limited naval vessels and Russian-made surface-to-air missiles.

Soldiers march during a military parade celebrating the 205th anniversary of Venezuela’s independence in Caracas, July 5, 2016. (Carlos Jasso/Reuters)

But Montgomery said the U.S. could quickly neutralize them. “Reasonably speaking, in the first day or two of a campaign plan, we can eliminate the air and maritime threat to U.S. forces,” he said.

Any U.S. plan targeting cocaine production would begin with “simultaneous strikes on the airfields, the aircraft and the air defense weapon systems to ensure that they don’t respond to any U.S. attacks on other assets.”

Asked whether Venezuela could retaliate after such strikes, Montgomery replied: “Not against an air campaign. No.”

Members of the Bolivarian National Guard stand in formation along Lake Maracaibo amid rising tensions with the U.S., in Maracaibo, Venezuela, on Oct. 26, 2025. (Isaac Urrutia/Reuters)

Montgomery stressed that while air defenses can be eliminated quickly, a ground operation would be a far different story. “They have a small professional military… 65 to 70,000 people, many of whom probably don’t want — they didn’t join the army to fight,” he said. The country also maintains a massive militia, whose motivation would depend on loyalty to Maduro.

But geography and scale make a land operation a nightmare scenario. “Venezuela is probably twice the geographic size of California, 35 to 40 million citizens,” Montgomery said. “This would be a terrifically challenging ground campaign, especially if it turned into a counterinsurgency.”

He added bluntly: “Today, I would not do this. I do not recommend it.”

A squad of Venezuelan Air Force aircraft overflies during the 2025 Venezuela industrial aviation expo in Maracay, Venezuela, on Nov. 29, 2025. (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Montgomery does support an air campaign which he believes will be more efficient than the current naval tactics. He cited his experience commanding U.S. Navy counter-drug operations: “Every one of these 21 ships could have been pulled over by a mix of Navy and Coast Guard assets and helicopters.” But intelligence often proved unreliable.

Despite years of decay, Venezuela still possesses a large, uneven mix of military hardware. Analysts say it cannot stop a U.S. campaign but could complicate early phases.

Soldiers take part in a drill after President Nicolas Maduro deployed the military across communities nationwide to train citizens amid rising tensions with the United States, in Yagua, Venezuela, Sept. 20, 2025. (Juan Carlos Hernandez/Reuters)

Its inventory reportedly includes 92 T-72B tanks, 123 BMP-3 infantry vehicles, Russian Msta-S artillery, Smerch and Grad rocket systems, and an estimated 6–10 flyable Su-30MK2 jets. Air defenses include the S-300VM, Buk-M2E and Pechora-2M.

Venezuela’s deepening ties with Iran, Russia and China continue to worry U.S. officials.

Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, said “numbers show only 20% of Venezuelans approve of this regime,” warning that for more than a decade “there has been no respect for the will of the population” as Caracas aligns with “anti-Western regimes that destabilize the region.”