WASHINGTON — In a move that could enhance the Democratic Party’s prospects in the upcoming midterm elections, Virginia voters have passed a mid-decade redistricting proposal. This plan could pave the way for Democrats to secure up to four additional seats in the U.S. House, influencing control over a Congress that is currently almost evenly split.
Voters endorsed a constitutional amendment that permits new districts to be established by Virginia’s Democratic-majority General Assembly, bypassing a previously established bipartisan redistricting commission. However, the decision may not be final, as the state Supreme Court is deliberating on the legality of the plan, which could ultimately render the referendum results ineffective.
This redistricting effort in Virginia represents a challenge to former President Donald Trump, who had initiated a nationwide redistricting push. By encouraging Republican leaders in Texas to redraw districts, Trump aimed to fortify the Republican hold on the House amidst the typical midterm election trend favoring the opposition party.
The strategy in Texas sparked a wave of redistricting across the country. Republicans are optimistic about gaining up to nine additional House seats from newly configured districts in states including Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. Conversely, Democrats are eyeing a possible gain of up to five seats in California, where a similar redistricting effort was approved, and an extra seat in Utah, thanks to court-mandated district changes.
In Virginia, Democrats are hopeful that the redistricting will help them bridge the gap, especially after their recent success in flipping 13 state House seats and reclaiming the governor’s office.
The redistricting tug-of-war continues in Florida, where the Republican-dominated legislature is scheduled to meet on April 28 in a special session, possibly setting the stage for congressional districts more favorable to Republicans.
In Virginia, Democrats currently hold six of the 11 U.S. House seats under districts that were imposed by the state Supreme Court in 2021 after a bipartisan commission failed to agree on a map based on the latest census data.
The new plan could help Democrats win as many as 10 seats. Five seats are anchored in the Democratic stronghold of northern Virginia, including one stretching out like a lobster to consume Republican-leaning rural areas. Revisions to four other districts across Richmond, southern Virginia and Hampton Roads dilute the voting power of conservative blocs in those areas. And a reshaped district in parts of western Virginia lumps together three Democratic-leaning college towns to offset other Republican voters.
Democrats portrayed the Virginia redistricting as a response to Trump. It is “pushing back against what other states have done in trying to stack the deck for Donald Trump in those congressional elections,” Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger said during an online rally last week.
Ads for the “yes to redistricting” campaign featuring former President Barack Obama flooded the airwaves.
But opponents of the redistricting also distributed campaign materials citing statements from Obama and Spanberger, who had both criticized gerrymandering in the past.
Congressional redistricting typically is done once a decade after each census.
In 2020, Virginia voters approved a constitutional amendment meant to diminish political gamesmanship by shifting redistricting responsibilities away from the legislature.
But lawmakers endorsed a new constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade redistricting last fall, then passed it again in January as part of a two-step process that requires an intervening election in order for an amendment to be placed on the ballot. The measure allows lawmakers to redistrict until returning the task to a bipartisan commission after the 2030 census.
In February, they passed a new U.S. House map to take effect pending the outcome of the redistricting referendum.
Republicans have filed multiple legal challenges against the redistricting effort.
A Tazewell County judge ruled that the redistricting push was illegal for several reasons. Circuit Court Judge Jack Hurley Jr. said lawmakers failed to follow their own rules for adding the redistricting amendment to a special session. He ruled that their initial vote failed to occur before the public began casting ballots in last year’s general election and thus didn’t count toward the two-step process. And he ruled that the state failed to publish the amendment three months before that election, as required by law.
If the state Supreme Court agrees with the lower court, the referendum results could be rendered moot.
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