Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

Happy Tuesday and welcome to the first major Election Day of the year, with a critical state Supreme Court race in battleground Wisconsin that’s drawn national attention, and two special elections in Florida for deep-red House seats, one of which in particular has made Republicans sweat.

After diving into that Florida race yesterday, Steve Kornacki breaks down two key areas to watch in Wisconsin. Plus, our Capitol Hill team looks at how Republicans are bracing for President Donald Trump’s big tariff announcement.

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— Adam Wollner

Two very different parts of Wisconsin to watch in the state Supreme Court election

By Steve Kornacki

While Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race is officially nonpartisan, Democrats and Republicans have both picked sides and are pouring fortunes into their efforts. As the votes are tallied tonight, the ability to claim political momentum amid the upheaval of President Donald Trump’s second term will be on the line. 

What is being tested, though, is not so much whether large numbers of voters have changed their minds in the five months since the presidential election. When it comes to Trump himself, Wisconsin is an especially polarized state, with three straight presidential elections decided by less than 1 point. More likely, the outcome hinges on whether the pro-Trump side has become more engaged in an election like this than it has been up to this point. 

This is a clear advantage that Democrats have carved out in the Trump era. In stand-alone elections for lower-profile offices, in which turnout is far lower than in races for president or even governor, they’ve had the more motivated set of voters. This has been true in Wisconsin, where the Democratic-backed candidate won the most recent Supreme Court election in 2023 by 11 points. And it has been true nationally, where Democrats have posted a string of wins and overperformances in House special elections the last few years.

The energy isn’t coming from all corners of the Democratic coalition. Instead, it is concentrated among a largely white set of voters with high levels of education, higher incomes and intensely anti-Trump views.  

They are found in most abundance in college towns and metropolitan areas, but even in places where they are few in number, they’ve been punching above their weight in lower-turnout elections.

On the flip side, Trump in his three campaigns has generated surge turnout and support from blue-collar, white voters, predominantly in rural and small-town areas. Many of those voters had been on the political sidelines before Trump came along, while others had been voting Democratic. They’ve maintained strong loyalty to Trump but haven’t been as interested in low-profile contests like state Supreme Court races. 

Two particular parts of Wisconsin capture this dynamic starkly and will loom large Tuesday night.

Dane County is some of the most demographically fertile ground for Democrats anywhere in the country. Home to both the state capital and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, it has — by far — the highest concentration of college-educated adults in the state. It’s also the fifth-wealthiest county in the state, and with nearly 600,000 residents, it’s the second-most populous. And in lower-profile races like this one, its turnout levels have been the highest of any county.

Then there’s what’s known locally as the “Driftless Area,” a largely rural and small-town swath that extends along and inland of the Mississippi River from the Iowa border to just south of the Twin City suburbs of St. Croix County. The name derives from a lack of glacial coverage tens of thousands of years ago, but politically, the Driftless Area is chock full of white, blue-collar voters who emerged in droves when Trump first ran for the White House in 2016. It is the cultural and political opposite of Dane County.

Now consider what happened in the 2023 Supreme Court election. If we use last year’s presidential race as a benchmark, turnout in Dane County for the 2023 court race was 66% as high. That’s an astronomical sum given the office at stake. And the Democratic-aligned candidate won by 64 points, a much larger spread than Democratic presidential candidates typically enjoy in Dane.

By contrast, turnout in the 14 counties that make up the Driftless Area was only 51% of the presidential level, meaning that many of those voters who materialized for Trump simply didn’t take part. And without them, the Democratic-backed candidate actually won the Driftless Area, a throwback to the pre-Trump era.

That encapsulates the challenge for Republicans in Tuesday’s race: Have they found a way to reach pro-Trump voters in places like the Driftless Area and convince them that it’s a test of their loyalty to the president?

Live coverage: Follow along with live updates from tonight’s elections on our live blog

Some Republicans seek tariff exemptions and express concern over Trump trade war

By Sahil Kapur, Melanie Zanona and Zoë Richards

Several congressional Republicans are publicly voicing concern over the potential for a prolonged trade war and its effect on American farmers as President Donald Trump prepares to announce a new wave of tariffs.

Trump is expected to impose duties as early as Wednesday on imports from other countries in a move that could hit the agriculture community particularly hard. Several GOP lawmakers on Capitol Hill are seeking last-minute carveouts to blunt the impact of those tariffs.

Rep. Glenn Thompson, R-Pa., the chair of the House Agriculture Committee, told NBC News that he has asked the White House to exempt certain goods that are important to the U.S. agricultural industry, such as fertilizer and peat moss.

“I’ve kind of pointed out the things that I’m hoping” will be excluded, he said. “I talk with anybody who will listen to me. … They’ve been really good about input.”

Thompson also said he hopes Congress won’t need to bail out farmers with an emergency aid package, as it did during the first Trump administration. But, he said, “we’ll be prepared to do that” again if needed.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said exemptions for specific goods are likely to be needed.

“The only thing I can tell you right now is on potash,” Grassley said when he was asked about Trump’s tariffs. Citing the U.S.’s reliance on Canada for much of its potash, Grassley said “we’ll have to ask for” an exemption.

Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., the chair of the House Appropriations Committee, indicated a divide between the farming and nonfarming communities.

Cole said farmers in his state “export a lot,” so they have concerns about retaliatory tariffs. Those outside the agricultural community, however, are “mostly in favor” of the tariffs, which he said has prompted him to take a “wait and see” approach.

What to know from the Trump presidency today

• The Trump administration carried out mass layoffs across the Department of Health and Human Services on Tuesday, aiming to slash around 10,000 full-time jobs from the federal agencies long tasked with regulating food and drugs, and overseeing the nation’s public health policies.
• At least six federal agencies are offering workers a new “deferred resignation” opportunity in the latest attempt by the Trump administration to slash the size of the U.S. government.
• The U.S. government accidentally deported a man to El Salvador due to an “administrative error,” landing him in a notorious mega-jail and leaving him stuck there in legal limbo. 
• Attorney General Pam Bondi directed federal prosecutors to seek the death penalty for Luigi Mangione, the man accused of gunning down UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in New York City last year.
• Nonprofit and Democratic groups filed legal challenges against Trump’s new executive order aimed at overhauling federal elections. 
• Democratic officials in 23 states and Washington, D.C., sued the Trump administration over its decision to “abruptly and arbitrarily” terminate $11 billion in federal funds for Covid and other public health projects.
• The administration cut funding to a host of Princeton University research projects, marking the latest Ivy League institution to see its federal backing reduced or revoked.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Bridget Bowman.

If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com