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The annual ritual of tax filing is upon us, with the IRS anticipating that 164 million individuals will submit their returns by the April 15 deadline. As tax season kicks off, the focus is not only on meeting deadlines but also on understanding the potential changes in refund amounts this year.
Last year, the average tax refund was $3,167, but experts suggest that this figure may rise by about $1,000. This increase is largely attributed to recent modifications in the tax laws. In the previous tax cycle, over 165 million individual income tax returns were processed, with an overwhelming 94% of them filed electronically, demonstrating a clear preference for the convenience of digital submission.
For those with uncomplicated tax situations, the process should be smooth. However, the national taxpayer advocate has raised concerns about potential difficulties in the 2026 filing season due to a significant reduction in IRS staff. This workforce reduction began with the Trump administration, and its impact may be felt by taxpayers requiring assistance with their filings.
Last year, IRS employees were restricted from accepting buyout offers from the administration until the end of the tax filing period. Yet, many customer service representatives have since left the agency. In 2025, the IRS started with approximately 102,000 employees but saw this number dwindle to around 74,000 following a series of layoffs and terminations orchestrated by the Department of Government Efficiency.
For those filing electronically, the IRS estimates a refund processing time of 21 days or less, with even quicker results for direct deposit users. Conversely, choosing to file a paper return may extend the refund wait to four weeks or more, especially if amendments or corrections are necessary.
When tax refunds will go out?
If you file electronically, the IRS says it should take 21 days or less to receive your refund. If you choose direct deposit, it should take even less time. If you file a paper return, the refund could take four weeks or more, and if your return requires amendments or corrections, it could take longer.
The IRS cautions that taxpayers not rely on receiving a refund by a certain date, especially when making major purchases or paying bills.
Taxpayers can use the online tool Where’s My Refund? to check the status of their refund within 24 hours of e-filing and generally within four weeks of filing a paper return. The “Where’s My Refund?” tool will also provide projected deposit dates for most early EITC/ACTC refund filers by Feb. 21, according to the IRS.
Information related to this tool is updated once daily, overnight. To access the status of your refund, you’ll need:
— Your Social Security or individual taxpayer ID number (ITIN)
Taxpayers can also consult the IRS2Go app, or their IRS Individual Online Account, to check their refund status.
How tax refunds work
If you paid more through the year than you owe in tax, due to withholding or other reasons, you should get money back. Even if you didn’t pay excess tax, you may still get a refund if you qualify for a refundable credit, like the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or Child Tax Credit. To get your refund, you must file a return, and you have three years to claim a tax refund.
Who qualifies for the Earned Income Tax Credit
To qualify for the EITC, you must have under $11,950 in investment income and earn less than a specific income level from working.
If you’re single with no children, your income level must be $19,104 or below. And if you’re married filing jointly with three or more children, you must make $68,675 or below. To determine if your household qualifies based on your marital status and your number of dependents you can use the online EITC Assistant tool.
Who qualifies for the Child Tax Credit and Additional Child Tax Credit
If you have a child, you are most likely eligible for the Child Tax Credit. The credit is up to $2,200 per qualifying child. To qualify, a child must:
— Have a Social Security number
— Be under age 17 at the end of 2025
— Be your son, daughter, stepchild, eligible foster child, brother, sister, stepbrother, stepsister, half-brother, half-sister, or a descendant of one of these (for example, a grandchild, niece or nephew)
— Not provide more than half of his or her own support for the tax year
— Have lived with you for more than half the tax year
— Be claimed as a dependent on your tax return
— Not file a joint return for the year (or filed the joint return only to claim a refund of taxes withheld or estimated taxes)
— Be a U.S. citizen, U.S. national or a U.S. resident alien
You qualify for the full amount of the Child Tax Credit for each qualifying child if you meet all eligibility factors and your annual income is not more than $200,000 ($400,000 if filing a joint return).
You qualify for the Additional Child Tax Credit if ($1,700 per qualifying child) if you meet these factors and have little or no federal income tax liability. You must have earned income of at least $2,500 to be eligible for the ACTC.
When the tax credits will become available
The IRS expects most refunds for the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child Tax Credit and the Additional Child Tax Credit to be available in bank accounts or on debit cards by March 2 for taxpayers who choose direct deposit. Some taxpayers may receive their refund earlier, depending on their financial institution.
What’s different this year
This year, most taxpayers must provide their routing and account numbers to receive refunds directly deposited into their bank accounts. That’s because the IRS began phasing out paper tax refund checks on Sept. 30 in accordance with an executive order.
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