Germany has witnessed a significant decline in illegal immigration, reaching its lowest point in more than ten years, excluding the initial year of the pandemic. This decline aligns with the tenure of the country’s conservative chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who assumed office last May with a promise to enhance border security.

During the period from January to November 2025, the national migration agency, Bamf, recorded 106,298 first-time asylum applications. This puts Germany on track for its smallest annual total since 2013, a notable decrease compared to the 229,751 applications received in 2024.

The federal police, tasked with managing border control, reported 62,526 illegal entries last year, marking a substantial reduction from the numbers seen in 2023. In addition, nearly 75 percent of the 33,000 individuals attempting to breach the border from May to December were either denied entry or, in 58 instances, physically returned across the frontier.

In 2024, number was over double, at 229,751.

Last year, the federal police, responsible for controlling the border, registered 62,526 illegal entries, half as many as in 2023. 

Meanwhile, nearly 75 per cent of the 33,000 people who attempted to cross the frontier between May and December were either rejected or, in 58 cases, physically escorted back to the other side.

While Merz’s government claims responsibility for the decrease – which began to take hold two years ago – it is difficult to determine the exact cause of the decline. 

The amount of migrants entering the European Union via Belarus, the Balkans and the eastern Mediterranean has also fell sharply for various reasons – including geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and Poland’s extensive policing measures on its eastern border. 

The record figures occurred under the watch of the country’s conservative chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who pledged to tighten border controls when he came to power last May

Last year, the federal police, responsible for controlling the border, registered 62,526 illegal entries, half as many as in 2023

Nearly 75 per cent of the 33,000 people who attempted to cross the frontier between May and December were either rejected

At the same time as the drop in immigration, a mild but protracted recession has rendered the German economy less attractive that its neighbours. 

‘This kind of political rhetoric or game where they say: ‘Okay, we’ve got refugee and migration flows under control and our restrictions are responsible’ is really very dubious’, Marcus Engler, a social scientist at the German Centre for Integration and Migration Research in Berlin, told The Times.

Chancellor Merz has decided to grapple with migration head on, declaring the issue a ‘national emergency’. 

He has ordered German police to turn back virtually all undocumented migrants at the border and has temporarily suspended family reunification, and as a result the foreign ministry issued only two visas for relatives of asylum seekers in the past five months.

On top of this, Merz has also reversed many of Germany’s migration policies which have made the country such a popular destination for asylum seeker. 

These include the abandoning voluntary humanitarian refugee intake schemes while also replacing cash benefits with prepaid debit cards that can only be used in physical shops.

Mr Engler added that Merz’s ominous rhetoric about migrants changing Germany’s ‘urban landscape’ has helped create a hostile environment to deter more arrivals.    

German police with migrants at the Polish border. Chancellor Merz has decided to grapple with migration head on, declaring the issue a ‘national emergency’

Supporters of Alternative for Germany (AFD) in Berlin. Politically, Merz hardline anti-migration stance appears to have done little to stop the rise of the hard-right AFD which are now neck and neck with Merz’s CDU in the polls

But some members of Merz’s coalition want the government to go even further.

Members of the Bavarian Christian Social Union, which controls the national interior ministry, is calling for most of Germany’s 950,000 remaining Syrians to be sent back and for regular deportation flights to Taliban-governed Afghanistan. 

The policies have led the government to loggerheads with the German judiciary.

In the summer, the administrative court in Berlin ruled that three men from Somalia had been turned back illegally at the border with Poland because there was no justification for the ‘state of emergency’ underpinning the order and it therefore violated EU law. 

Other legal experts have claimed that attempts to stop migrants crossing the land border might also go against the European Convention on Human Rights, although these claims have yet to escalate to Strasbourg. 

According to Mr Engler, Berlin has ‘absolutely no evidence at all’ to prove its border controls are working. 

‘Look at the borders: there are hundreds of kilometres of forests and mountains and meadows. These controls will be easy to circumvent for people who really want to,’ he said.

‘But to put it clearly, there is no serious study that shows these border controls result in people [who are fleeing persecution] no longer coming to Germany.’

German police carry out border checks on the French border. Legal experts have claimed that attempts to stop migrants crossing Germany’s land border might also go against the European Convention on Human Rights

Politically, Merz hardline anti-migration stance appears to have done little to stop the rise of the hard-right Alternative for German (AFD) party which are now neck and neck with Merz’s CDU in the polls.

There is some evidence that the government’s relentless focus on the topic was only driving more voters towards the AfD. 

Concerns have also been raised that the removal of migrants could only exacerbate the strain on an already tight labour market.

Economists have estimated that Germany needs a total of roughly 1.5 million migrants a year — or a net figure of 400,000 once emigration has been factored in — to sustain its workforce at the present level.

And because many of the Syrians who have called Germany home for the past decade are now employed in a lot of key industries, there have been calls for a ‘great deal of pragmatism’ when it comes to deportations.