Prisons in England and Wales are nearing a critical tipping point, with expectations that they will soon be unable to accommodate new prisoners due to overcrowding, officials have cautioned.

According to warnings from HM Prison and Probation Service officials, the system is anticipated to reach its ‘operational capacity breaking point’ shortly following the July 4 election.

This crisis emerges amidst ongoing government efforts to alleviate the strain on the nation’s prison system, including the early release of thousands of inmates before they complete their sentences.

However, reports suggest the government’s actions have fallen short of effectively addressing the issue, with emergency plans labeled Operation Early Dawn likely to be activated in the initial days of the new administration.

This initiative involves housing detainees in police stations instead of prisons and postponing hearings in magistrates’ courts.

Prison heads have been warned by HM Prison and Probation Service officials that an ‘operational capacity breaking point’ will arrive just days after the July 4 election

Tom Wheatley, the president of the Prison Governors Association, has blamed the outgoing government’s lack of action on prison overcrowding

Tom Wheatley, president of the Prison Governors Association, shared with the Guardian, “We anticipate that by the second or third week of July, we will no longer be able to accept prisoners from the courts. It’s not an exact prediction, but it is expected shortly after the election.”

‘This position was projected some time ago. The outgoing government did not take the necessary action in a timely fashion to avoid this.’

Operation Early Dawn was last triggered in May, and was forecast to run for around a week. 

The Law Society said at the time the measures ‘could cause chaos as victims, witnesses, defendants and lawyers’ who would face turning up at court only to find their case had been delayed.

The society reported that one lawyer, criminal defence solicitor Kerry Hudson, revealed the contents of a court attendance note, which said: ‘Client not brought to court because of Operation Early Dawn although listed in court 10. 

‘He may or may not be produced tomorrow. He may already be bailed. Who knows? Will have to check with cells tomorrow.’ 

Mr Wheatley said that any efforts by officials to continue sending inmates to jails could be challenged in the courts because it would put staff ‘at risk’. 

The latest data on prison populations released by the Ministry of Justice last week showed there are just shy of 1,500 spaces currently available in prisons in England and Wales – meaning jails are 98 percent full.

Operation Early Dawn was last triggered in May, and was forecast to run for around a week

For much of this year emergency measures have already been in place across England and Wales allowing some criminals to be released up to 70 days early from their sentence in a bid to free up more spaces.

Judges have also been urged to consider community sentences for non-violent offenders, rather than jail time. 

Many offenders are already released halfway through their sentence – subject to good behaviour – but officials are now reportedly considering shortening this to 43 percent.

It is thought this could quickly free up thousands of spaces at a time when the courts system has a huge backlog of cases. 

The prison population has risen by 93 per cent over the last three decades to more than 87,000, and in March just 500 prison places were available in England and Wales.

Shabana Mahmood, Labour’s shadow justice secretary, said: ‘This is just the latest example of the chaos the Conservatives have created in our criminal justice system.

‘Not only are they releasing prisoners in secret, now they are deliberately delaying the delivery of justice. For months, the Conservatives have been operating under a cloak of darkness. They must now come clean about the true scale of the crisis on their watch.’

The Ministry of Justice was contacted for comment.