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In a recent interview with Reuters at the Oval Office, President Donald Trump expressed his doubts about Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi’s potential to lead the country. While Trump acknowledged Pahlavi as “very nice,” he questioned whether the Iranian people would embrace him as their leader. This conversation took place shortly after President Trump seemed to dial back on the possibility of U.S. military intervention, a threat he had been making amidst Iran’s harsh crackdown on widespread protests. “He seems very nice, but I don’t know how he’d play within his own country,” Trump remarked, adding, “And we really aren’t up to that point yet. I don’t know whether or not his country would accept his leadership, and certainly if they would, that would be fine with me.”
The fragility of power
President Trump speculated that the regime of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could collapse in light of the ongoing demonstrations, though he noted that “any regime can fall.” He commented, “Whether or not it falls or not, it’s going to be an interesting period of time.” Pahlavi, born in Tehran, is the son of the U.S.-backed Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who was overthrown by Iranians in 1979, leading to the establishment of the current Islamic Republic. This regime has been marked by decades of oppressive governance, evident as reports emerged of at least 2,400 protesters being killed and another 18,000 arrested amid intentional internet blackouts. Though Pahlavi, residing in the Washington, D.C. suburbs, has been vocally supporting the protests from afar, there seems to be little organized backing for a return to monarchy within the country.
A softening stance
Last week, Trump indicated he had no plans to meet with Pahlavi amidst Iran’s unrest. The president faced criticism earlier that Wednesday from anti-regime commentators online, who labeled him with the term “TACO” – “Trump always chickens out” – after he appeared to accept Iranian claims that killings and executions had ceased. On January 2, as Trump was preparing to address Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, he declared the U.S. was “locked and loaded” to take military action against the Iranian regime if protesters were being murdered. However, during a signing event for a law concerning whole milk in schools, Trump softened his rhetoric, stating, “We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping, and it’s stopped and stopping, and there’s no plan for executions or an execution.” He cautioned that if these reports were false, he would be “very upset.”
Pragmatism over protest
The president has been trepidatious about backing regime change. In Venezuela, instead of turning to the opposition, which the U.S. said had won the 2024 election against Maduro, the U.S. government has currently partnered with Maduro’s No. 2, Delcy Rodriguez, who’s become the country’s acting president. Trump told Reuters that he had had a ‘fascinating talk’ with Rodriguez earlier in the day, adding ‘she’s been very good to deal with.’
He’s expected to meet with Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado at the White House on Thursday, who had initially planned to offer upher Nobel Peace Prize to the U.S. leader. Since then, the Norwegian group that gives out the annual prize stated that the prize can’t be transferred or shared. Trump had vocally lobbied for the prize last year. ‘She’s a very nice woman,’ Trump said of Machado. ‘I’ve seen her on television. I think we’re just going to talk basics.’
On Iran, too, Trump has green-lit particular strikes, but hasn’t done enough to amount to regime change. In June, Trump ordered B-2 bombers to participate in Operation Midnight Hammer, a mission to take out Iran’s main three nuclear sites, Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. In the early days of 2020, during the president’s first term, he also authorized a drone strike to kill Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force General Qasem Soleimani, outside the Baghdad airport.