In a significant development, former President Donald Trump has surged ahead in an election model by the Daily Mail, marking his strongest chance yet of defeating Kamala Harris in the upcoming November election. A recent poll from the pivotal swing state of Michigan, showing Trump narrowly leading his Democratic rival by one percentage point, has contributed to this rise, enhancing his lead by two points from the previous week to nearly 18 points.
Despite this notable lead, the final weeks of the campaign season remain unpredictable. Trump currently stands at a 58.8 percent chance of winning against Harris, who holds 41.1 percent, leaving the outcome still very much uncertain. However, the latest polling data indicates that Trump is poised to secure 301 electoral college votes compared to Harris’ 236, representing his most substantial lead thus far.
Callum Hunter, a data scientist with J.L. Partners who analyzes these figures, noted in his recent briefing that “things continue to move against Harris.” He observed that Trump’s probability of winning has increased by another two points compared to last week, widening the win probability gap to nearly 18 points.
‘The fact that Michigan has moved into the Trump camp is significant and a major blow to the Harris campaign. ‘New polls this week may temper this increasingly good news for Trump.’
The model weighs all the latest polling data, along with 80 years of election results and economic statistics to deliver each candidate’s chances of winning in the electoral college. Overall, it predicts that Harris has a much better chance of winning the popular vote (as Democrats have done in seven of the last eight elections).
At the same time, a string of recent polls have shown critical swing states edging towards the former president. The most crucial of those may be a Mitchell Research and Communications poll for Michigan News Source, which showed Trump overtaking Harris in a head-to-head match-up by one point.
If all the other third-party candidates are included they finish neck-and-neck on 48 percent each. Last week, Michigan was seen as a toss-up state by our model. The new poll edges it towards Trump, and he wins it in 50.1 percent of simulations.
Among other states, Arizona moves from ‘lean Trump’ to ‘likely Trump,’ and North Carolina has done the same, with it falling to the former president in 70.3 percent of simulations. At the same time, a New York Times/Siena College poll published Monday showed Harris regaining a national lead over Trump.
That could change things in our model once those data are factored in. Trump was in Michigan and Wisconsin at the end of last week and is due to campaign in Pennsylvania on Wednesday. Harris was also in Michigan last week and will hit up Nevada and Arizona later this week.
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