The unsettling possibility that insider trading might be occurring, with individuals profiting from sensitive information within the Oval Office during the ongoing conflict in Iran, raises both security and ethical concerns. The White House is taking this matter seriously.
According to a White House official who spoke to the Daily Mail, staff members were cautioned last month against using privileged information to make financial gains in the markets.
Although Iran was not specifically mentioned, the timing of the warning coincided with the conflict, suggesting that senior officials are worried that some staff might exploit their positions for a financial advantage on betting platforms.
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted bettors eager to wager on a range of topics, from sports predictions to the likelihood of U.S. ground troops being deployed in Iran, or even the words former President Donald Trump might use.
This surge in gambling and prediction markets has sparked concerns that high-ranking government officials could be using confidential information to gain a competitive edge.
The advisory email sent on March 24 to White House staff coincided with increased market volatility, as oil prices, stock markets, and prediction platforms reacted to the rapidly changing developments of the war.
Presidential announcements, like the proclamation of a ceasefire this week or the threat of bombing Iran’s civilization into oblivion the days before that, have caused the markets to jerk and swing wildly.
Before Trump delayed a deadline for Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz on March 23, billions of dollars of oil and stock futures moved hands, and experts have called for investigations into the fishy trades executed with abnormally good timing.
A White House memo was sent out last month warning staff to not use insider information to profit in financial markets
Kalshi markets how it bans insider trading, a key concern among regulators
Polymarket, another prediction market site, boasts Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser
Some Trump critics have claimed that he’s used his office to manipulate markets; they often cite his choice to make major announcements directly before the market opens or soon after it closes.
Just minutes before Trump announced a temporary pause on strikes targeting Iran’s energy sites at the end of March, billions of dollars starting flowing through the oil market.
Contracts for at least six million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude were sold at around 6.50am on March 23 – roughly ten times the daily average.
At 7.05am, Trump dropped a bombshell on global markets as he said the US wanted to negotiate with Iran.
Oil prices dropped sharply, around 14 percent in a matter of minutes, and money flowed into the pockets of the early traders.
No Trump administration official has been implicated in any wrongdoing.
And that’s not the only time Trump has taken to Truth Social to tout certain stocks or to make a major statement before an official action.
Trump was ridiculed Friday for touting Palantir Technologies on his social media in which he included the stock ticker, prompting questions about who may have purchased the stock before the President celebrated it.
Further, the President appears to at times walk back threats that roil markets negatively, a trading trend that has been dubbed TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out.
First son Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi.
On Polymarket users can wager on how many social media posts the President will make in a given week, or what words he will say during his speeches, or how long he will drone on for.
The White House has denied that any administration officials have misused nonpublic information for their own financial gain.
‘President Trump has been crystal clear: While he seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit,’ White House spokesman David Ingle said in a statement.
‘All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit. However, any implication that administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless,’ he added.
Last month, a group of over 40 Democratic lawmakers signed a letter to call on Trump administration financial regulators to clarify restrictions on using inside information to make bets.
Several proposals to ban Capitol Hill staffers from using the prediction sites have circulated in Congress, though none have been passed into law.
