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The excitement is building as the 152nd Kentucky Derby, the first jewel of the Triple Crown, is set to captivate horse racing enthusiasts and bettors on Saturday at Churchill Downs. Longshots have always fascinated the crowd, and the Derby has had its share of underdog stories. The most memorable recent upset occurred in 2022 when Rich Strike, initially an alternate, was added to the race roster just a day before and clinched victory by a narrow margin over Epicenter. Entering with 80-1 odds, Rich Strike became the second-longest longshot winner, only surpassed by Donerail’s 91-1 odds win in 1913. This year, the field includes several top contenders, but the question remains: Can horses like Incredibolt at 20-1 or Albus at 30-1 pull off an unexpected win at the 2026 Kentucky Derby? For those looking to place a wager, the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS provides up to $400 in bonus bets, doubling the typical offer.
The race will kick off at 6:57 p.m. ET in Louisville, Kentucky. With Renegade leading as the 4-1 morning-line favorite in the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds, the competition is stiff. Close behind are Further Ado and Commandment, both at 6-1, with Chief Wallabee at 8-1 and The Puma at 10-1 also being strong contenders. Before placing any bets, it’s worth considering insights from racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu, who has a track record of successful picks.
In the wide-open 2021 Kentucky Derby, Yu notably picked Medina Spirit, who triumphed at 12-1 odds. She also recommended a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds during Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which paid off at 18-1 when Rich Strike won. Her impressive streak continued into 2025, where she accurately predicted Citizen Bull’s victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and successes for Forever Young in the Saudi Cup, Journalism in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman in the Arkansas Derby, and Mindframe in the Churchill Downs Stakes. Her exacta and trifecta picks, such as the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic and the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby, have proven lucrative for those following her on platforms like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires, and 1/ST BET.
With the 2026 Kentucky Derby lineup finalized and odds available, Yu is now offering her expert insights and betting strategies on SportsLine. Those interested can visit SportsLine to access her predictions.
Yu’s analysis includes a surprising decision to fade Commandment, despite its 6-1 favoritism. While many see potential winners outside of Renegade, Yu is skeptical of Commandment’s chances. The horse recently won the Florida Derby, but Yu points out concerns about its diminishing closing speeds. From the Fountain of Youth Stakes to the Florida Derby, Commandment’s pace has slowed, and the longer distance of the Kentucky Derby could prove challenging, possibly leading to a late fade despite a strong start.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions
One surprise: Yu is fading Commandment, despite his status as one of the favorites at 6-1. There are several contenders outside of Renegade with decent odds to win at Churchill Downs but Yu does not believe Commandment is one of them. The horse is coming off a win in the Florida Derby but the concern here is the slow closing speeds. Commandment saw reduced speeds from the Fountain of Youth Stakes to Florida, and the Kentucky Derby is even longer, suggesting the horse could fade late even with a strong start.
Another concern is jockey Luis Saez. While other contenders like Further Ado and Chief Wallabee have jockeys with track records of success, Saez has not finished first or second in the Kentucky Derby in 12 previous starts. He has won two of the last four Kentucky Oaks races, but Saez just can’t seem to get the same performance for the main event at Churchill Downs. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another curveball: Yu is high on The Puma as a 10-1 longshot as the proven horse racing expert likes the Gustavo Delgado-trained colt’s consistency. The Puma won the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7 and finished second at the Florida Derby three weeks later. Derby co-second favorite Commandment edged The Puma by a nose in the race at Gulfstream Park.
“He did everything but win the Florida Derby when Commandment nosed him out, but he has been super consistent,” Yu told SportsLine. She also says “his best races put him right in the mix,” and jockey Javier Castellano and Delgado teamed up to win the Derby in 2023 with Mage. Castellano also won the 2023 Belmont Stakes on Arcangelo and has won the Preakness twice. He is looking for a second victory in his 18th Run for the Roses. The Puma has finished in the top three in all four races since his maiden run in January. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing for the Kentucky Derby here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Yu’s top pick is a horse who is “screaming for more ground.” She also is high on a big double-digit longshot who will be the “forgotten horse.” She is including this horse in her 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.
