As the festive season approaches, Arsenal supporters can look forward to their holiday celebrations with the added joy of knowing their team is currently leading the Premier League standings.

This wasn’t always guaranteed. Earlier on Saturday, Arsenal was temporarily knocked off the top spot when Manchester City secured a commanding 3-0 victory against West Ham United at the Etihad Stadium.

However, later that day, Arsenal reclaimed their position with a narrow 1-0 win during their inaugural visit to Everton’s new Hill Dickinson Stadium. This victory placed them two points ahead of City and three ahead of Aston Villa.

Arsenal fans are well aware that topping the table at Christmas doesn’t guarantee a title. Historically, the Gunners have yet to clinch the Premier League championship when leading at this festive juncture.

In past seasons, Arsenal has seen significant leads dissipate, notably losing an eight-point advantage to Manchester United in the 2002-03 season and experiencing a similar fate in 2007-08. More recent seasons like 2022-23 and 2023-24 have also been disappointing for fans.

Arsenal’s 1-0 win on their first visit to Everton’s new Hill Dickinson Stadium sent them right back to the top of the league

But the last four times the Gunners were top at Christmas, they failed to convert their lead into a title

Indeed, Arsenal’s tendency to falter after the holiday season is a pattern that predates the Premier League era, highlighting the challenges they face in maintaining their top form.

Arsenal have, according to Opta Analysis, incredibly failed to win the league on the last seven occasions they’ve led on December 25. You have to go back as far as 1947-48 to find the last time the Gunners lifted the top flight trophy after leading at Christmas. 

So for all of Mikel Arteta’s plaudits – and there have been many – it looks as though being top at Christmas means nothing at all. 

In fact, of the 126 seasons of English top flight football which have been played since 1888, the side at the top of the table on December 25 has only gone on to win the title on 56 occasions. That’s just 44 per cent of the time.

If you look solely at the Premier League era, 17 of the 33 (51.5 per cent) teams to have spent Christmas top have gone on to win the league. 

And bigger leads than Arsenal’s have been blown in years gone-by. Take Newcastle United’s capitulation in 1995-96 as a prime example. 

When the clock struck midnight on 25 December, 1995, Kevin Keegan’s Magpies looked as though they were on the verge of ending their 69-year wait for the Premier League title. 10 points they sat clear of Man United.

Man United overturned a 12-point deficit on Newcastle United to win the league in 1996

Two days later they faced the Red Devils and lost 2-0, but they would go on to restore their lead to some 12 points before Sir Alex Ferguson played his famous mind games on the Newcastle boss. 

‘I’d love it if we beat them,’ Keegan blurted after his side blew their lead in April 1996.

They didn’t, and United went on to lift the Premier League trophy after an almost extraordinary comeback. 

History therefore clearly suggests that it’s far from a foregone conclusion that Arsenal will end their more than 20-year wait for the Premier League trophy this campaign. 

But don’t be fooled into thinking Mikel Arteta isn’t aware of this. The Spaniard was asked only last week about what being top of the league after 18 matches means for his side’s title aspirations. 

His response: ‘What gives me belief and confidence is the level of performance and the consistency of that. 

‘That’s very, very difficult to do in this league and that means that the team is constantly there. Enjoy the process of winning and you’re going to have to go to difficult places, you’re going to have difficult moments, we have dealt with a lot of things already and we are there.

The title race could come down to April 18, when City and Arsenal face each other at the Etihad

‘And what we’re going to do is work for the next game, try to improve and make sure that everybody is with that spirit and energy and enjoying that.’

For Arteta, this season is make-or-break. 

For all of his good work since he took over a dire Arsenal side in 2019, the club are without a trophy for some five years since they beat Chelsea in the FA Cup final of 2020. 

They may be in pole position to end that drought, though they’ll need to buck an historic trend to do so.