From the blood and thunder of their Carabao Cup run to the thud and blunder of their Premier League form, Newcastle are in danger of blowing a hole in their own season. That thud is manager Eddie Howe banging his head against the dressing-room wall.

For his team of late, the ceiling is high but the floor is low. Saturday’s performance at Manchester City felt subterranean, even. Captain Bruno Guimaraes called them ‘lazy’ after a 4-0 defeat, and this from a side who, at their best, buzz like bees around honey. They swarm the opposition. Lazy, they are not.

So why, then, are they at risk of stinging themselves on the backside? The fear is that they are already blinded by the shiny pot that awaits at Wembley in a month’s time. 

That is why Howe will go ‘back to basics’, as he put it, on the training ground this week. The head coach has three ‘non-negotiable’ traits he demands from his players. Two of them are: ‘always give your best’ and ‘put the interests of the team before your own’. 

They looked negotiable at the Etihad. Newcastle did not give anything close to their best and played as if holding something back with Wembley in mind. Had Dan Burn’s injury scare at Birmingham the previous weekend – framed immediately in the context of the cup final – scared more so his team-mates and threatened their personal goals?

Newcastle’s season is swinging between highs and lows, and their future is on a knife-edge

Bruno Guimaraes called them ‘lazy’ after the Manchester City battering last weekend – and there is a fear is that they have become too fixated on their potential Carabao Cup prize

After beating Arsenal in the semi-finals, they cannot afford to take their foot off the gas

Because this is the challenge for Howe at a club like Newcastle. Winning a domestic cup, 70 years on from their last, will be like scaling Everest. Now they have their fingertips within reach of the summit, no player wants to lose his grip on potential immortality. Be part of the team that day, when and if it ever does arrive, and you’ll never have to buy another Brown Ale or stottie on Tyneside again.

For Liverpool, the Carabao Cup final will only enter their thoughts in the week of the game. Before then, there is the Champions League and maintaining their Premier League title charge. 

For Newcastle, the final feels like everything. It is with good reason that players such as Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon have spoken so passionately about ending the trophy drought when signing their new contracts. They know that the bigger prizes, Premier Leagues and Champions Leagues, will probably not happen in their Newcastle lifespan.

But here is the elephant in the room – and a warning to supporters, it is not wearing a black and white scarf. If Newcastle do win a cup but fail to qualify for the Champions League, there is a chance that some of their star names could feel like it marks a natural page-turn in their career. No one connected to the club would want Guimaraes, Gordon or Alexander Isak to go, but it would at least be a happy ending of sorts.

The unhappier ending is no silverware and no top-five finish. Days such as Saturday – and Bournemouth and Fulham – make that feel more likely than not. For it will be far easier keeping those big players happy, sufficiently remunerated and believing in the direction of travel if they have their passport in one hand and Champions League accreditation in the other. 

The Carabao Cup is big, but there is another picture that is bigger, and Howe knows as much. It is the case, then, that Newcastle’s future, short and long-term, rests on a knife-edge.

Two years ago, before the Carabao Cup final defeat by Manchester United, they cut their own throat in the build-up, losing form and focus in the Premier League. 

By the time Wembley came around, they were as good as beaten before a ball had been kicked. Still, they recovered to make the top four.

It will be easier Newcastle to keep their star players if they reach the Champions League, regardless of winning the Carabao Cup

Toon had plenty of soul-searching to do after Man City thrashed them 4-0 on Saturday 

Winning the Carabao Cup but failing to seal a Champions League spot could spell player exits

The Magpies hope to overcome their demons from their 2023 Carabao Cup final heartbreak

It is different now. There are five league games between the semi-final and final – it was three in 2023 – and Howe has warned that their Premier League season will be over if the City effort, or lack of, is repeated in the coming weeks. 

He and his players have not been aided by a third straight transfer window without a first-team addition, and that speaks to why they feel able to come off it like they did on Saturday. No matter how poorly Isak, Gordon, Guimaraes or Sandro Tonali play, they will start at Wembley. 

For them, getting there fit, rather than in form, is perhaps the subconscious priority. That is an unfortunate upshot of no real competition for places.

But players who wrap themselves in cotton wool soon become soft. They were as soft as clouds at City and played as if they had their heads in them. The danger now is that Newcastle’s dreams turn into a nightmare.