Manchester City have been installed as overwhelming favourites to win an unprecedented fifth-straight Premier League title by Opta’s supercomputer.
The stats boffins are well known for this simulation which offer a glimpse into the way the new campaign could play out. The season gets underway on Friday night when Manchester United host Fulham at Old Trafford and ahead of the drama, Opta has revealed their findings.
It’s little surprise to see Pep Guardiola’s side atop the standings once more, though the percentage of Opta’s 10,000 simulations that City ran out as champions is stunning.
These findings come as something of a blow to the perception of Arsenal, who have run City close in each of the last two seasons.
Manchester City have been tipped to add even more silverware to their collection at the end of the campaign
Arsenal have made great strides to catch City but the supercomputer still doesn’t fancy their chances
Mikel Arteta’s side were for long stretches the outstanding outfit in the top-flight and they finished last season in superb form. The Gunners boss has bolstered his backline with the addition of Italian Riccardo Calafiori but signings further up field may be needed to give full confidence that they can go all the way.
According to the supercomputer, Arsenal’s most likely finishing position is second, with a 48.8 per cent chance compared to just a 12.2 per cent chance of winning the league.
The stats boffins have clearly been impressed by what they have seen from new Liverpool boss Arne Slot in pre-season. That, or the quality of the Reds’ squad provides confidence that they’ll replicate their finish from last term.
Liverpool are the only top-flight side still yet to make a signing but in Opta’s simulations, they end up in third place most often, 40.2 per cent of the time to be exact.
They have also been given a slim chance of winning the league at just 5.1 per cent. Last season’s top three along with Chelsea and Newcastle are the sides with a greater percentage chance of lifting the title than 0.1.
The battle for the final Champions League spot looks like it will be an interesting one with four teams separated by just eight per cent. Chelsea have been given the nod at 19.5 per cent, with the Magpies at 17.5, Manchester United at 12.9 and Tottenham on 11.8.
Liverpool come into the season with a very similar squad but a new manager, still they’ve been tipped to repeat their third-place finish from last term
The battle for fourth place looks set to be a thrilling one and Chelsea have just been given the nod to seal the final Champions League spot
Manchester United are one of only three sides that finished in all 20 positions in Opta’s 10,000 simulations
Interestingly, United are one of only three clubs that finished in all 20 positions in Opta’s 10,000 simulations. The Red Devils remarkably have a 0.3 per cent chance of finishing 18th and getting relegated, according to the supercomputer.
Aston Villa, who occupied that position last term, find themselves way down in eighth, while West Ham, who have heavily invested in their squad under new boss Julen Lopetegui, are more likely to finish below Crystal Palace.
At the foot of the table, Opta have found that the three promoted sides are most likely to make an immediate return to the Championship. Their multitude of simulations could not find much difference between their final finishing positions.
Southampton finished bottom 28.6 per cent of the time compared to Ipswich’s 27.4 per cent and Leicester in 23.4 per cent of the 10,000 simulations.
By contrast, Nottingham Forest – who have been given a final finishing position of 17th – finished 20th in only 9.2 per cent of the time.
Rounding out the final few places were Brighton, Fulham, Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth and Wolves. These cluster of teams were not easily separated with differences of less than one percentage point among the group in various positions.
The Seagulls under their new head coach Fabian Hurzeler – the youngest manager in Premier League history – have been tipped to finish 11th.
Opta’s supercomputer believes that Aston Villa will find life juggling Champions League and domestic commitments hard
All three promoted sides have been tipped to make an immediate return to the Championship. Pictured: Ipswich boss Kieran McKenna
They’ve been given a 9.4 per cent chance of that, while Wolves have been a 16.5 per cent chance of finishing five places lower in 16th.
Everton, who will be playing at Goodison Park for the final time this season before moving to their shiny new stadium, have been placed in the comfortable position of 13th.
The Toffees are one of eight teams that finished bottom more than 100 times in the 10,000 simulations conducted by Opta.
