Opta’s supercomputer has been working overtime in the wake of the first wave of Champions League quarter final first legs, and it has come up with a new favourite to go all the way in Europe’s premier competition. 

Heading into the last-eight, Barcelona were considered the most likely team to lift the iconic trophy in Munich in May, ahead of PSG and Arsenal, with a 23.1 per cent chance of glory. 

On Tuesday, though, there were two crucial results that have shaken up the predictions and seen one team in particular drop dramatically down the table. 

As such, and perhaps unsurprisingly given the gravity of the tie, Arsenal have now shot up the table and are considered the most likely team to win the Champions League. 

The supercomputer’s calculations are made by using a combination of betting odds and Opta’s power rankings, which are in turn derived from recent and historical team performances in the competition. 

Barcelona were previously considered favourites to go all the way in the Champions League 

Arsenal stunned Real Madrid with a Declan Rice masterclass to take a 3-0 lead in the tie

Real Madrid were stunned by Arsenal but still have a chance in the second leg at the Bernabeu

Opta’s supercomputer rates their chances at 28.4 per cent – an increase of 12.8 per cent from pre-match predictions – and the Gunners have a 96 per cent chance of making the semi-finals and 54.2 per cent likelihood of reaching the final. 

Declan Rice’s two free-kicks and Mikel Merino’s fine finish have handed them a three-goal advantage, but they still have to go to the Bernabeu and finish the job, which is no mean feat. 

Second behind Arsenal are Barcelona, whose chances drop 0.7 per cent to 22.4 per cent, and are set to take on Borussia Dortmund in their quarter-final first leg on Wednesday night. 

The Blaugrana are interestingly the third-most likely to reach the semis and the final, behind Arsenal and Inter, yet retain an advantage over the Italian giants in terms of their credentials to lift the trophy, it would seem. 

As for Inter, their victory over Bayern boosted their chances of progression to 82.4 per cent – up from 51.5 per cent – and their overall title-winning chances are up 7.3 per cent. 

Fourth come French champions PSG, dropping two places from pre-game predictions, but still very much contenders with a drop-off of only 0.5 per cent for their chances of glory.

The Parisian outfit are given a 72.4 per cent chance – up by 1.1 per cent – of beating Aston Villa in the semi-finals and facing either Arsenal or Real Madrid in the last-four, though the Gunners’ dominant win has seemingly impacted PSG’s odds of reaching the final, down 0.7 per cent to 35.5 per cent.

There is then a considerable drop-off between the top and bottom halves of the predictions table – which seems slightly unfair given two of them haven’t even played yet. 

Lautaro Martinez and Inter recorded a crucial 2-1 win over Bayern Munich to move to third

PSG have dropped to the fourth-most likely team to win the Champions League ahead of their first leg clash with Aston Villa on Wednesday 

Bayern Munich’s chances of winning the Champions League took a big hit on Tuesday evening

Aston Villa will take on Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their quarter-final on Wednesday

Bayern are bizarrely up a place from sixth to the fifth despite losing, though their chances of winning the Champions League (3.7 per cent) have diminished by 7.1 per cent. 

Their slender defeat by Inter means they do still have a 17.6 per cent chance of making the semis, and 8.6 per cent to reach the final. 

Bayern are just ahead of Aston Villa, who take on PSG on Wednesday night, and are still given a fighting chance (27.6 per cent likelihood) of reaching the semis, though their overall title credentials are rated at just 3.2 per cent, down marginally from pre-Tuesday predictions. 

Borussia Dortmund, who face Barcelona on Wednesday, are given only a 20 per cent chance of beating the Catalan giants, and 1.3 per cent of winning the competition, but the biggest losers from the first round – in many ways – are Real Madrid. 

Previously given a 12.2 per cent chance of success and an oh-so-tight 49.8 per cent chance of beating Arsenal across two legs, Real Madrid are now bottom of the pile on 1.1 per cent to win the tournament. 

They may be three down to Arsenal heading into the second leg, but an early goal at the Bernabeu, the fan suddenly in full voice, the pressure all on Arsenal all of a sudden, and you’d expect that 4 per cent chance of progression to shoot right up.