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Eddy Cue deserves a raise.
Leading Apple’s services division means safeguarding the sizable revenue generated from Google to be Safari’s default search engine. “I’ve lost a lot of sleep thinking about it,” he admitted in Google’s antitrust trial.
Fortunately, his testimony was pivotal for Judge Amit Mehta, who recently decided that Google’s payments can persist. Cue’s trial arguments resonated with Mehta’s view: he labeled stopping Google’s payments as “crazy” while suggesting the search market is evolving with AI’s growth. Cue also mentioned a decline in Safari’s Google searches, causing a brief dip in Google’s stock.
Mehta echoed these points, stating that though default payments influence the market toward Google, banning them could harm recipients, such as Apple, potentially reducing its product innovation. Google’s payments are believed to constitute about 15% of Apple’s yearly profit.
The emergence of generative AI companies, like OpenAI, corroborated competition in the search market. Mehta noted the swift influx of investment into the AI sector as a sign of possible change, hinting that Google might not always outbid if better alternatives arise.
Mehta understands the complexity of Google and Apple’s ties, with Google historically sharing ad revenue with Apple from Safari. This has mutually benefited both companies for nearly two decades.
Coinciding with Mehta’s decision, reports emerged about Apple and Google’s potential collaboration on integrating Gemini into Siri’s AI capabilities. Apple has been considering this for over a year, but recent developments now allow the plans to advance.
“This outcome is a home run for the status quo, and the status quo has been very favorable to both Google and Apple,” the tech and media stock research firm MoffettNathanson wrote in a note to its clients this week. “We’re not suggesting that the future of search or devices is now free from competitive threat, but this decision allows the transition ahead to unfold on their terms rather than through a disruptive and damaging judgment.”
Apple and Google’s search deal should have been undone, and perhaps it still will be if Apple eventually gets its turn under the antitrust spotlight. I’ve spoken with many would-be Google Search rivals over the years who have pointed to the deal as a key factor in stifling competition. You could argue that no deal has had a greater impact on Silicon Valley over the long arc of time, in fact. The most sinister aspect is that it has enabled the two companies that already control how most people access the internet to become richer and more powerful together.
The relationship being allowed to continue now sets the stage for Apple and Google to extend their shared dominance into the age of AI. Apple is behind on AI, but remains a powerful source of distribution for Gemini via iPhones, iPads, and Macs. With search payments from Google continuing to roll in, why would Apple need to acquire a startup like Mistral or Perplexity to play catch-up? It’s already getting paid to work with one of the world’s leading AI companies and now has carte blanche to forge deeper ties.
This week’s ruling also puts OpenAI’s distribution deal with Apple for ChatGPT in a tough spot. I’m sure Apple likes having optionality, but it’s not going to jeopardize the Google relationship with the money from search continuing. OpenAI doesn’t yet have an ads business to give Apple a competitive cut from, either. Despite what Mehta thinks, it’s hard to imagine any other company being able to exceed Google’s default payments with a superior product (sorry, Microsoft). This all leaves Google and Apple where they’ve been all along: two de facto monopolies feeding each other at the expense of everyone else.
- A seating chart for the ages: If you have intel on who decided where all the tech leaders sat for last night’s big AI dinner at the White House, please reach out. Placing Alexandr Wang directly across the table from Sam Altman was certainly a choice, as was Mark Zuckerberg’s placement between Donald Trump and David Sacks. I’ll leave the jokes about Chamath Palihapitiya’s presence to everyone who is already making them on social media.
- Lambos coming to the OpenAI HQ garage: It can be challenging to grasp the magnitude of a $10.3 billion tender offer, which OpenAI made available this week to eligible employees. So here’s a narrower number: $30 million. That’s how much my sources say that OpenAI employees (who have been at the company for at least two years) can elect to sell by the end of this month. It’s three times more than the previous maximum cap. Let the good times roll!
- Fidji Simo gets the band back together: Speaking of OpenAI, it’s remarkable how much its C-suite is starting to resemble that of mid-2010s Facebook. Vijaye Raji, an early Facebook engineering leader, is rejoining his former colleague, Fidji Simo, as CTO of OpenAI applications, which means he’s going to oversee the rollout of the company’s imminent browser release. His company, Statsig, is being acquired as part of the deal but will seemingly stay independent. Srinivas Narayanan, who previously ran engineering at OpenAI and is also an early Facebook leader, is now CTO of “B2B applications.” Yes, OpenAI has two CEOs and two CTOs.
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