With the Middle East in turmoil, concerns about potential rationing are gaining traction, following remarks from a UK Treasury minister acknowledging it as a conceivable scenario. Dan Tomlinson noted that the government is closely observing the situation, as global supply chains face immense pressure. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for about 20% of the world’s oil, has been effectively closed by Iran in response to US-Israeli military actions. This has already led to skyrocketing fuel prices and fears of a significant spike in the energy price cap by July. Additionally, the blockade threatens to disrupt various sectors, including medicine supplies.

In light of these developments, former U.S. President Donald Trump has called on nations like the UK, France, Germany, Canada, and even China to assist in ensuring tankers can navigate through the pivotal Strait. However, given the ongoing conflict, there has been hesitance to act on this request, and the practicality of any patrol efforts remains uncertain. The timeline for military engagement is currently vague, with some speculating it may extend to September, although Trump has expressed optimism that it will conclude sooner. As the UK braces for the repercussions of this Middle Eastern chaos, several political figures are at odds. Keir Starmer and Trump are clashing over the approach to the Iranian conflict, with the UK resisting US calls for naval support. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is hosting Volodymyr Zelensky at Downing Street to discuss strategies to mitigate rising energy costs, which could inadvertently benefit Russia. Meanwhile, Nigel Farage advocates for the UK to support reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Rachel Reeves hints at the possibility of advancing North Sea oil and gas projects amidst the crisis.

Addressing the possibility of rationing, Mr. Tomlinson, in an interview with Times Radio, emphasized the government’s vigilant monitoring of the situation. “It is too early to predict the impact this crisis will have in the coming months,” he said. “Recently, we’ve witnessed a sharp rise in heating oil costs, and the government has pledged £50 million in aid for UK residents reliant on this resource.” Nick Butler, a former energy advisor to No. 10 and a BP veteran, warned that the effective closure of the Strait could precipitate a global oil shortage within weeks. Speaking on the BBC, Butler emphasized the necessity for ministers to safeguard essential economic sectors, suggesting that some form of rationing might become unavoidable. He recalled the lessons from the 2000 tanker drivers’ dispute, underscoring the critical importance of oil and gas supplies to the economy’s functioning and the challenges of swiftly sourcing alternative supplies.

He added: ‘In the short-term, we have to look at what supply we have and look at the crucial sectors, the health service, food supply, hospitals, those are key elements that must be protected. And beyond that, it is then for the Government to decide how to ration what is left if we get to that situation.’ The US President vented his frustration with the PM again last night, describing the UK’s reluctance to get involved in the Middle East as ‘terrible’. He also claimed that Sir Keir had offered to send two aircraft carriers to the region – something that Downing Street denied. Only one of the UK’s carriers is currently operational, and that is due to be deployed to the Arctic. The barbs came as European powers batted away Mr Trump’s call to send warships to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz. Sir Keir insisted yesterday that the UK would not get dragged into a ‘wider war’ after the US and Israel launched attacks. France and Germany have also dismissed the idea of taking an active role while conflict is raging.

Mr Trump’s annoyance boiled over again last night, presenting Sir Keir with another major diplomatic headache. ‘I was very surprised with the United Kingdom. Two weeks ago I said, ‘Why don’t you send some ships over?’ And he [Starmer] really didn’t want to do it,’ the President said. ‘You’re our oldest ally, and we spend a lot of money on Nato and all these things to protect you. I mean, we’re protecting them. I think it is terrible. I was not happy with the UK. I think they will be involved, maybe, but they should be involved enthusiastically. We requested two aircraft carriers which they had. And he did not really want to do it. And after the war had essentially ended, I mean after they were obliterated, he said ‘I would like to send the aircraft carriers’. ‘I said ‘I don’t need them after the war has ended, I needed them before the war’.’ Seemingly contradicting himself, Mr Trump added that he approached Britain, France and others ‘not because we need them, but because I want to find out how they react’.

Last night in the Oval Office, Mr Trump renewed his criticism. He said: ‘The UK was sort of considered the Rolls-Royce of allies, right? I said [to Sir Keir] it would be really helpful if you’d send over a couple of ships, and if you have some minesweepers.’ ‘The Prime Minister is a nice man. He says ”Well, I’d like to ask my team.” I said ”You’re the Prime Minister, you can make a decision”.’ Even if Britain wanted to send a warship, the two that could be deployed, destroyers HMS Dauntless and HMS Duncan, are being prepared for a crucial Nato exercise in the High North where they are expected to escort the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales.

At a Westminster press conference this morning Mr Farage said that the UK’s navy was too weak to help the US. ‘When it comes to aiding the Americans in freeing the Strait of Hormuz, well, I think in many ways we ought to. I think it is in our national interest to keep the oil flowing, but we can’t. We haven’t got the assets,’ he said. ‘So I think the first very big lesson that comes out of all of this is that we have denuded the Royal Navy and our forces to such an extent that, frankly, we’ve been humiliated on the world stage. Our defence spending for next year is due to be just a fraction over 2% and we’re going to have to find ways to significantly and rapidly up that budget. ‘o be fair, this is not all the fault of this Labour Government. Fourteen years of Conservative government have run down our armed forces to a state, frankly, as I say, of total global embarrassment.’