In a recent CNN poll, Republicans are trailing behind Democrats by five points in approval ratings, amidst growing public discontent over President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb Iran. During Monday’s segment of News Central, Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten shared insights on this development, particularly in the context of the forthcoming midterm elections. Enten shared with anchor John Berman that this lead, while present, is historically low for Democrats when considering the backdrop of a Republican presidency. Berman queried whether this margin was significant enough for Democrats to seize control of the House or Senate.

Enten illustrated his point with historical data, referencing past midterm elections in 2006 and 2018. “This year’s average is less than what it was in 2018, where Democrats led by eight points,” he noted, “and significantly lower than the 11-point lead seen in the 2006 cycle.” Despite the current five-point lead, Enten pointed out that President Trump’s net approval rating is hovering between -20 and -30, depending on the poll. “You would expect Democrats to be significantly ahead under these circumstances, yet they are only slightly in the lead,” he explained.

Adding to the public’s dissatisfaction are rising prices and declining stock values following Trump’s recent actions in Iran. The president, who positioned himself as a leader focused on economic prosperity and avoiding war, now faces criticism from many within his own MAGA base over these decisions. Yet, despite these circumstances, Democrats have not seen a significant boost in polling numbers. To underscore Enten’s analysis, producers displayed graphics projecting a hypothetical voting split among the 50 states, based on past voting patterns from 2024, to further explore the potential electoral outcomes in November.

Only states Trump won by 10 or more electoral points were marked in red, Enten said. ‘The GOP would win the senate with this map,’ he stated. Behind him beamed an electoral map that showed Republicans winning 51 senate seats to the other party’s 49. As it gave way to the other graphic, Enten recalled how no candidate has been able to flip a Senate seat marked by a 10-or-more-point gap in history. ‘Zero, zero – zero times did a party flip those states,’ Enten said of states like Texas and Alaska.

He ultimately maintained that Democrats ‘are just, simply put, running behind their previous benchmarks. ‘And they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate, given that math.’ He wrote separately on X: ‘[Senate Democratic Leader Chuck] Schumer is on thin ice to hold his job next year.’

Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Schumer were both met with negative ratings in the new poll. It took place between March 26 and March 30, saw 1,201 people surveyed, and boasted a 3.2 percentage margin of error.