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Sydney and Melbourne expected to generate new jobs in the next four years despite COVID-19

Australia’s biggest cities are expected to bounce back from the coronavirus crisis in coming years despite being the epicentre of job losses.

Sydney and Melbourne‘s central business districts have seen one in ten jobs disappear since the World Health Organisation declared a COVID-19 pandemic in March.

Interactive maps also show pockets in upmarket suburbs near the city where a higher proportion of workers are on $1,500-a-fortnight JobKeeper wage subsidies.

Property analyst Michael Matusik predicted Sydney and Melbourne (St Kilda tram pictured) would generate two-thirds of new capital city jobs during the next four years

Property analyst Michael Matusik predicted Sydney and Melbourne (St Kilda tram pictured) would generate two-thirds of new capital city jobs during the next four years

Property analyst Michael Matusik predicted Sydney and Melbourne (St Kilda tram pictured) would generate two-thirds of new capital city jobs during the next four years

Despite that, property analyst Michael Matusik predicted Sydney and Melbourne would generate two-thirds of new capital city jobs during the next four years. 




Where COVID-19 has caused most job losses

1. Inner Melbourne: down 10.6 per cent

2. Inner Sydney: down 10.57 per cent

3. Tasmania south east: down 10.47 per cent

4. Melbourne north west: down 9.43 per cent

5. Warrnambool and Victoria south west: down 9.4 per cent




6. Hobart: down 9.33 per cent

7. Launceston and Tasmanian north-east: down 9.33 per cent

8. Victoria north west: down 9.07 per cent

9. Melbourne north east: down 8.98 per cent

10. Gold Coast: down 8.82 per cent




Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics payroll data showing job losses between March 14 and May 30, 2020

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‘Most of the new jobs in the capitals should be in Melbourne, Sydney and then Brisbane,’ he said.

Capital cities themselves would be the home of three-quarters of new employment between now and May 2024, despite talk of more people working from home in beachside towns.

‘There has been some commentary about more people moving out of the major capitals and living in regional centres,’ Mr Matusik said.

‘This has been already happening when it comes to people downsizing or retiring, but it isn’t commonplace when it comes to most working households.’




The director of Matusik Property Insights said falling federal government revenue in coming years, as a result of the coronavirus downturn and trade retaliation from China, was more likely to hurt regional areas than capital cities.

‘This will especially be the case if the coronavirus impact sees regional tertiary education facilities close,’ he said. 

‘Less overseas tourists and our fracas with China escalates limiting the economic viability of certain resource operations.’

Regional areas are already among the worst-hit on the employment front, making up five of the ten most affected zones.

Still, inner-city Sydney and Melbourne had the steepest plunge in jobs between March 14 and May 30.




Payrolls in these cosmopolitan areas fell by 10.6 per cent as white-collar workers stayed away from the city office, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed.

Mr Matusik cited government figures forecasting Melbourne generating 36 per cent of new capital city jobs between now and May 2024, as Sydney was home to 33 per cent of new employment

Mr Matusik cited government figures forecasting Melbourne generating 36 per cent of new capital city jobs between now and May 2024, as Sydney was home to 33 per cent of new employment

Mr Matusik cited government figures forecasting Melbourne generating 36 per cent of new capital city jobs between now and May 2024, as Sydney was home to 33 per cent of new employment

Analytics firm Taylor Fry has also created interactive maps showing a higher proportion of workers in Sydney, from Bondi in the east to the Northern Beaches, relying on JobKeeper subsidies.

Despite those grim figures, Mr Matusik was confident Australia’s biggest cities would stage a comeback.

He cited government forecasts of Melbourne generating 36 per cent of new capital city jobs in the five years to May 2024, as Sydney was home to 33 per cent of new employment.




Brisbane was expected to have a 13 per cent share of new jobs by that time.

A short drive south of Brisbane, the Gold Coast was expected to generate 17 per cent of Australia’s regional jobs by 2024.

Brisbane was expected to have a 13 per cent share of new jobs by that time

Brisbane was expected to have a 13 per cent share of new jobs by that time

Brisbane was expected to have a 13 per cent share of new jobs by that time

Newcastle, north of Sydney, was tipped to be the home of 12 per cent of new jobs in areas outside Australia’s capital cities.

Regional areas have suffered from the coronavirus downturn with ABS payrolls data showing Tasmania’s south-east suffered a 10.47 per cent jobs drop in the 11 weeks to May 30.




Western Victoria taking in Warrnambool in the Great Ocean Road saw a 9.4 per cent payroll plunge.

The Gold Coast, an area particularly reliant on international tourism, saw an 8.8 per cent plummet.  

Interactive maps also show pockets near the city where a higher proportion of workers are on $1,500 a fortnight JobKeeper wage subsidies. Pictured is Taylor Fry map showing in red areas where a higher proportion of workers are having their pay propped up

Interactive maps also show pockets near the city where a higher proportion of workers are on $1,500 a fortnight JobKeeper wage subsidies. Pictured is Taylor Fry map showing in red areas where a higher proportion of workers are having their pay propped up

Interactive maps also show pockets near the city where a higher proportion of workers are on $1,500 a fortnight JobKeeper wage subsidies. Pictured is Taylor Fry map showing in red areas where a higher proportion of workers are having their pay propped up

Capital cities themselves would be the home of three-quarters of new employment between now and May 2024, despite talk of more people working from home in beachside towns

Capital cities themselves would be the home of three-quarters of new employment between now and May 2024, despite talk of more people working from home in beachside towns

Capital cities themselves would be the home of three-quarters of new employment between now and May 2024, despite talk of more people working from home in beachside towns

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