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DES MOINES, Iowa — Most likely Republican Iowa caucusgoers say they’ll vote for former President Donald Trump in the general election if he’s the GOP nominee, regardless of the candidate they’re supporting on caucus night.
That is, except supporters of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, with nearly half of them — 43% — saying they’d vote for Democratic President Joe Biden over Trump.
These new findings from the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa further illustrate the degree to which Haley is bringing in support from independents, Democrats and Republicans who have been uneasy with Trump’s takeover of the GOP. Fully half of her Iowa caucus supporters are independents or crossover Democrats, according to the survey results. Overall, Haley took 20% for second place in the survey, compared to 48% for Trump.
The poll also shows three-quarters of caucusgoers believing Trump can defeat Biden despite the former president’s legal challenges. But again, a majority of Haley’s supporters think it will be nearly impossible for Trump to win.
“I am more officially a Democrat who used to be a Republican and have kind of switched over, and basically I’m wanting to caucus in Iowa for the least of the worst,” said 37-year-old poll respondent Chelsea Cheney of Linn County.
“And in looking through all of them, I think that’s Nikki Haley,” Cheney added. “I don’t necessarily love her, but I don’t find her dangerous in ways that I find many of the other candidates dangerous.”
Pollster J. Ann Selzer, who has been conducting this Iowa survey over the last three decades, said, “Haley is consolidating the anti-Trump vote. She does well with the people who define themselves as anti-Trump.”
And while that vote isn’t big enough in Iowa for Haley to pull close enough to really challenge Trump in polls there, a different mix of the electorate in New Hampshire — where independents make up a much larger share of the vote — could make the Jan. 23 primary there more competitive.
Overall, the Iowa poll finds 71% of likely GOP caucusgoers saying they’ll vote for Trump in the 2024 general election if he’s the Republican presidential nominee, versus 11% who will vote for Biden, 6% who will vote for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and 8% for another third-party candidate. The remainder say they’re not sure or wouldn’t vote.
But among the Iowa caucusgoers who are supporting Haley as their first-choice candidate, just 23% say they’ll vote for Trump, versus 43% who say they’ll vote for Biden.
That compares with 64% of DeSantis supporters and 98% of Trump backers who say they’ll vote for Trump if he’s the GOP nominee.
In addition, the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa finds 74% of likely Republican caucusgoers saying that Trump can win a general election despite his legal challenges, versus 23% who believe the former president’s legal challenges make it nearly impossible to defeat Biden.
Those results are essentially unchanged from December’s Iowa poll.
Once again, the breakdown among Haley’s supporters looks starkly different. Only 42% say Trump can win against Biden, while 54% say his legal challenges will make it nearly impossible to defeat the current Democratic president.
By comparison, only 36% of DeSantis’ supporters and just 3% of Trump’s express doubts about the former president’s chances against Biden.
Haley has made electability a big part of her closing argument to voters, highlighting good poll results against Biden in debates and on the campaign trail. Both her campaign and the super PAC backing her have aired ads touting those general election poll results, too.
