What is the expected rainfall for Central Florida from this Gulf storm?

In the lead-up to this significant weather occurrence, Central Florida experienced a prolonged stretch of minimal to nonexistent rainfall, causing our drought conditions to edge towards severe intensities for some areas.

April was notably marked by a resurgence of 90-degree heat that lingered, coupled with clear skies, exacerbating the risk of brushfires along with the summer temperatures.

This scenario is swiftly shifting. A low-pressure system is currently stalled over the southeastern United States. We find ourselves on its eastern side, which is channeling a substantial amount of moisture and precipitation across Florida’s peninsula.

One could say this is a Gulf “atmospheric river” set up, since the low itself isn’t projected to fully vacate our area for another three days give or take. So rain chances will only stay where they are, if not go UP for a lot of us during our Mother’s Day and the first day of the new week ahead.

Computer models are locked on in terms of our rainfall totals as well. Total precipitation amounts are usually fairly tricky to pinpoint until we’ve reached two to three days before a major event such as this. It’s even more difficult to calculate when we’re looking at general thunderstorms developing during the warmest parts of the day, and relaxing with the setting of the sun.

A good majority of Central Florida will see an average of 2-3 inches of rain once this is all said and done. Isolated areas of the peninsula could pile up 3-4 inches with some of our heavier thunderstorms forecast to still occur during Mother’s Day and Monday before this set up pushes away from us.

This does come with a twist as well – severe thunderstorms. While the environment is not entirely conducive for tornadic development, we have plenty of ingredients to spark strong, gusty winds within these thunderstorms as well as create some hail.

We’re tracking the greatest potential for severe thunderstorms to make an appearance being later into your Mother’s Day holiday, sometime around late afternoon towards early evening. So definitely take advantage of any outdoor festivities you may have planned for Mom before the storms really settle in.

On that note, enjoy this rain while you can too! Make sure you take this time to help your lawns and gardens at home too while the soil is still moist.

Long-range data suggests we’re about to flip back into a dry pattern for the meat and potatoes of May. Climate Prediction Center is on board with their latest rainfall outlook showing below average chances we pick up anymore big time rains mid May.